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AXNT20 KNHC 240757

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is between

high pressure over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the 

western Gulf, analyzed from 26N96W to 22N96W to 19N94W. This

pattern is supporting strong to gale-force winds offshore 

Tamaulipas and Veracruz and west of the trough as indicated by an

overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass. Large and building seas

accompany these winds, currently 8 to 11 ft. Gales will slowly 

diminish from north to south through the day, lingering off 

Veracruz into the evening. The very large seas will slowly decay 

through Sat, managing to peak around 20 ft this afternoon into the

evening. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued

by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwest to near 02.5N21W.

The ITCZ extends from 02.5N21W to along the Equator between 30W

and 45W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered

moderate convection is noted within 360 nm south of the monsoon

trough and ITCZ between 14W and 29W, and from 02S to 02.5N between

31W and 50W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer 

to the Special Features section for more details.



As mentioned above, a surface trough is analyzed over the western

Gulf. Abundant cloudiness, with patches of light rain, dominates 

most of the western Gulf. A ridge is noted over the remainder of 

the basin with moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Seas are mainly 4

to 7 ft east of the trough across the majority of the basin.



For the forecast, gales will slowly diminish from north to south 

through the day, lingering off Veracruz into the evening. The very

large seas generated by the gales will slowly decay through Sat. 

Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will increase 

to fresh to strong speeds over the central and SE Gulf this 

afternoon into tonight as high pressure builds down from the 

north. Winds will veer to the SE in the western Gulf this weekend 

and become fresh to locally strong ahead of low pressure building 

in the central U.S. By the end of the weekend into early next 

week, more tranquil marine conditions are forecast basin-wide as 

the pressure gradient weakens. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front is moving from the Central Bahamas to eastern Cuba

near 21N78.5W, continuing as a shear line to the Gulf of Honduras

as indicated by an overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass. That pass 

showed fresh to strong N to NE winds west of the shear line. Seas 

are 5 to 8 ft west of 85W, including near the Yucatan Channel. Low

level clouds, with possible showers, are also noted over the NW 

Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 

moving across the remainder of the basin producing isolated to 

scattered passing showers with the greatest coverage between SW 

Haiti and eastern Jamaica. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE 

Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the 

Colombian low supports fresh to near gale-force trade winds in the

south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. 

Moderate to fresh winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in

the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of 

the central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee 

of eastern Cuba where seas are 1 to 3 ft. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will 

continue across the south-central Caribbean through the next 

several days, pulsing near gale force each night and early 

morning. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west of the 

shear line will spread and cover most of the waters west of 70W 

this weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, 

increasing to fresh to strong east of 70W Sat night into early 

next week. Meanwhile, a long- period E swell will lead to rough 

seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into 

early next week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat 

outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure 

gradient weakens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1018 mb low pressure is centered east of Florida and north of

the northern Bahamas near 28N78W. A cold front extends from the 

low center across the CEntral Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A warm

front stretches from the low to near 29.5N75W where it becomes a 

stationary front that continues eastward to beyond 31N65W. Low 

level clouds, with areas of light rain, are associated with these 

features. Fresh to strong northerly winds are ongoing between the 

low/cold front and the central and NE coasts of Florida along with

seas of 7 to 10 ft. Overnight satellite derived wind data 

indicate the wind shift related to the warm/stationary front, 

with gentle to locally moderate winds on either side of it. High 

pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters,

centered on a 1027 mb high near 29N43W. Fresh to locally strong 

NE to E winds prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge 

over the tropical Atlantic. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per altimeter

data within these winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north 

of there under the ridging, with mainly 5 to 7 ft in northerly 

swells.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of 22N through early next week. Meanwhile, the low pressure just 

north of the northern Bahamas will shift northeast of the basin 

through tonight, dragging a cold front eastward in its wake. Fresh

to strong winds and building seas west of the low and front will 

propagate eastward. The front will reach from just southeast of 

Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sat, then stall and weaken 

from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas early Sun. Looking ahead, fairly 

tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next week as a weak 

ridge settles over the region. 



$$

Lewitsky