****0000006508**** AXNT20 KNHC 241737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect for the next 18 hours or so: gale-force NW to N winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 20N to 24N between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 19N to 27N between 94W and 98W. A surface trough is along 25N97W 23N96W 21N96W 20N95W 18N94W. These conditions are occurring in parts of the west central Gulf, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to 02N22W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 01S28W 01S35W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate/isolated strong in clusters is from 06N10W 03N24W 06N47W 07N56W southward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale-Force Wind Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the western Gulf is allowing for strong to gale-force winds offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz along with large building seas. The gale winds will slowly diminish from N to S today, lingering off Veracruz into the evening. The very large seas will slowly decay through Sat. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds over the central and SE Gulf this afternoon into tonight as high pressure builds down from the north. Winds will veer to the SE in the western Gulf this weekend and become fresh to locally strong ahead of low pressure building in the central U.S. By the end of the weekend into early next week, more tranquil marine conditions are forecast basin-wide as the pressure gradient weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues from the 1018 mb low pressure center to central Cuba. A shear line is in the NW Caribbean Sea from 80W on the southern side of Cuba, toward northern Belize. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to near rough seas, are from 14N northward from 79W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 83W westward. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 15N southward between 72W and 78W. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.35 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; 0.17 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.11 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; and 0.04 in Curacao and in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas will continue across the south-central Caribbean through the next several days, pulsing near gale force each night and early morning. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west of a shear line from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will spread and cover most of the waters west of 70W this weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, increasing to fresh to strong east of 70W Sat night into early next week. Meanwhile, Long- period east swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb low pressure center is just to the north of the NW Bahamas. A stationary front is from the low pressure center 31N67W. A cold front continues from the 1018 mb low pressure center to central Cuba. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is on the western side of the 1018 mb low pressure center, from 26N northward from 76W westward. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from Cuba to 26N between the cold front and the Straits of Florida. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic wind flow is between 60W and the cold front. Rough seas are from 21N southward between 60W and 69W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.14 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 28N northward between 62W and 73W. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate seas, are with the surface ridge, within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of 26N74W 27N60W 27N50W 28N37W 30N23W 31N13W. Mostly strong to some fresh NE winds, and rough seas, are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, from the ITCZ/monsoon trough northward. Fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 22N through early next week. Meanwhile, low pressure just north of the northern Bahamas will shift northeast of the basin by early this evening dragging a cold front eastward in its wake. Fresh to strong winds and building seas west of the low and front will propagate eastward. The front will reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba early Sat, then stall and weaken from near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun. Looking ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. $$ mt/ja