****0000006835****
AXNT20 KNHC 242235

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2234 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is between

high pressure over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the 

western Gulf, analyzed from 18N94W to 21N96W. This pattern is 

supporting strong to gale-force winds offshore of Veracruz and 

west of the trough as indicated by this morning ASCAT 

scatterometer pass. Large seas between 12 to 17 ft accompany 

these winds. Gales will slowly diminish from north to south 

through the night, lingering through late tonight. The very large

seas will slowly decay through Sat. Please refer to the latest 

NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at

the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues 

southwest to near 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 00N24W

to 02S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N

along the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer 

to the Special Features section for more details.



Abundant cloudiness, with patches of light rain, dominates most 

of the Gulf. As mentioned above, a surface trough is analyzed over

the western Gulf. A somewhat tight pressure gradient over the 

central Gulf is supporting N to NE fresh to strong northerly 

winds with seas 8 to 12 ft. A ridge is noted over the remainder of

the basin with moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Seas are mainly 4

to 8 ft east of the trough and across the majority of the basin.



For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure

over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the western Gulf 

is allowing for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz. These winds 

will diminish to strong speeds late tonight, and the resultant 

rough to very rough seas will slowly decay through Sat. Otherwise,

fresh to strong northerly winds over the central and southeastern

Gulf will veer to east to southeast over the western Gulf tonight

and Sat as high pressure shifts eastward across the southeastern 

U.S. Winds are forecast to become fresh to locally strong ahead of

low pressure that will be developing in central Texas. By the end

of the weekend and into early next week, more tranquil marine 

conditions are forecast basin-wide as the pressure gradient 

weakens. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected 

to develop over the western Gulf starting Tue night as the high 

pressure becomes centered over the NE Gulf, then shifts to east of

the basin afterward. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A cold front is slowly moving from the Central Bahamas to eastern

Cuba near 20N77W, continuing as a shear line to the Gulf of 

Honduras. Low level clouds, with possible showers, are also noted 

over the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind

flow is moving across the remainder of the basin producing 

isolated to scattered passing showers with the greatest coverage 

over the central Caribbean. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE 

Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the 

Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds in the south- 

central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to 

fresh winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the south- 

central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the central 

Caribbean, and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of eastern 

Cuba where seas are 2 to 4 ft. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will 

continue across the south-central Caribbean through the next 

several days. Winds are expected to pulse to near gale force each 

night and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia. 

Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west of a shear line 

from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will spread and cover 

most of the waters west of 70W this weekend. Moderate to fresh 

trades will prevail elsewhere, increasing to fresh to strong east 

of 70W Sat night into early next week. Meanwhile, Long- period 

east swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages 

of the Windward Islands into early next week. Looking ahead, winds

may diminish somewhat outside of the central Caribbean early next

week as the pressure gradient weakens. These conditions will 

begin to abate at midweek.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A 1019 mb low pressure is centered east of Florida and north of 

the northern Bahamas near 28N77W. A cold front extends from the 

low center across the Central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A

stationary front stretches from the low to near 31N67W and beyond. 

Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are associated with 

these features. Fresh to strong NE to N winds are north and west

of the low/cold front while, SW moderate to fresh winds are found

east of these features. Seas in these areas range between 6 to 9

ft. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 

forecast waters, centered on a 1027 mb high near 29N37W. Fresh to

locally strong NE to E winds prevail across the southern 

periphery of the ridge over the tropical Atlantic with seas 7 to 

11 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of there under the 

ridging, with mainly 4 to 7 ft in northerly swells.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of 22N through early next week. Meanwhile, weak low pressure of 

1019 mb near 28N77W will shift northeast of the basin this evening

dragging a cold front eastward in its wake. Fresh to strong winds

and building seas west of the low and front will propagate 

eastward. The front will reach from just southeast of Bermuda to 

the central Bahamas and to central Cuba early Sat, then stall and 

weaken from near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun. 

Looking ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early

next week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. 

Moderate to fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern 

forecast waters starting Tue.



$$

KRV