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AXNT20 KNHC 250501

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between building 

high pressure across the western Atlantic and the NW Caribbean 

and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong 

trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through 

the next several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force 

each night and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia 

through at least Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12

ft with the strongest winds. A recent scatterometer pass indicates

strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean,

and fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela.



Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high 

pressure over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the 

western Gulf is allowing for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz.

Currently, the forecast shows winds to 40 kt and seas of 12 to 21

ft in NW to N swell. These winds will diminish to strong speeds 

late tonight, and the resultant rough to very rough seas will 

slowly decay through Sat.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra

Leone near 07N12W and continues southwest to near 04N16W. The 

ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 12W and 28W, and from

00N to 04N between 48W and 51W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please 

refer to the Special Features section for more details.



As previously mentioned, a persistent surface trough is over the 

western Gulf, and extends from 24N96W to the central Bay of 

Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are seen per scatterometer

data E of the trough axis to about 90W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft 

within these winds, except in the central Bay of Campeche where an 

altimeter pass indicates seas to near 15 ft. Abundant cloudiness,

with patches of light rain, dominates most of the Gulf waters S 

of 26N. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the NE Gulf.

A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located near the

Georgia/Florida border, is the main feature controlling the wind

regime across the remainder of the basin. Fresh to locally strong

N to NE winds are observed under the influence of this system 

over the eastern Gulf S of 27N, including the Straits of Florida 

and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. 

Weaker winds and lower seas are over the northern Gulf waters. 



For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure 

over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the western Gulf 

is allowing for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz. Please, see 

the Special Features section for more information about the 

forecast. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly winds over the 

south-central and southeastern Gulf will diminish Sat night while

winds veer to east to southeast over the western Gulf tonight and

Sat as high pressure shifts eastward across the southeastern U.S.

Winds are forecast to become fresh to locally strong ahead of low

pressure that will be developing in central Texas. By the end of 

the weekend and into early next week, more tranquil marine 

conditions are forecast basin-wide as the pressure gradient 

weakens. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected 

to develop over the western Gulf starting Tue night as the high 

pressure becomes centered over the NE Gulf, then shifts to east of

the basin afterward. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please 

refer to the Special Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to near gale-force winds in the south-central

Caribbean, fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing across the

NW Caribbean with seas of 8 to 9 ft based on buoy observations. 

Fresh to strong N winds are also noted within 120 nm of the coast 

of Nicaragua with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds 

prevail elsewhere with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Low level clouds, with 

possible showers, are noted over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low

level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across 

the remainder of the basin producing isolated to scattered passing

showers. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will 

continue across the south-central Caribbean through the next 

several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force each night

and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia through at

least Sun night. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west 

of 77W will spread and cover most of the waters west of 70W this 

weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, 

increasing to fresh to strong east of 70W Sat night into early 

next week. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will lead to rough 

seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into 

early next week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat 

outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure 

gradient weakens.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas with fresh to 

strong northerly winds and rough seas west of it. A surface trough

is analyzed E of the front and runs from 26N73W to eastern Cuba

near 20N75.5W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are on the W side of the

trough axis. Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are

related to these features. High pressure of 1029 mb located near

28N37W and its associated ridge dominates the remainder of the 

Atlantic forecast waters. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds

prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge over the 

Tropical Atlantic. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data 

within these winds. 



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of 22N through early next week with rough seas. The above mentioned

cold front will reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central

Bahamas and to central Cuba early Sat, then stall and weaken from

near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun with the fresh 

to strong winds and rough seas following through Sat night. Looking

ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next 

week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. Moderate to

fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern forecast 

waters by midweek.



$$

GR