****0000006806****
AXNT20 KNHC 250843

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0820 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between building 

high pressure across the western Atlantic and the NW Caribbean 

and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong 

trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through 

the next several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force 

each night and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia 

through at least Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12

ft with the strongest winds. An overnight scatterometer pass 

indicates strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central 

Caribbean, and fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa

near the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11.5W and 

continues southwest to near 04.5N16W. The ITCZ extends from 

04.5N16W to 00N35W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N50W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side

of the axis between 14W and 32W, and from 00N to 06N between 47W

and 52W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1031 mb is centered near Tampico, Mexico with a

persistent surface trough analyzed from 24.5N96W. Fresh to near

gale-force NW winds are west of the trough with very large seas,

close to 20 ft, in the central Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, fresh

to strong N-NE winds extend from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf

south of 24N with rough seas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic

winds are north of 24N around 1032 mb high pressure centered 

along the southern border of Mississippi and Alabama at

31.5N88.5W, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the

coastal waters. Abundant cloudiness, with patches of light rain, 

dominates most of the Gulf waters S of 26N. Cold air stratocumulus

clouds are noted over the NE Gulf. 



For the forecast, strong to near gale-force NW winds offshore 

Veracruz between a trough in the SW Gulf and high pressure near 

Tampico will diminish this morning, while associated very large 

seas gradually subside through tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E 

winds just east of the trough will veer to the SE today and spread

to off NE Mexico and Texas as low pressure moves into southern 

Texas. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 

in the SE Gulf will diminish and subside through tonight. A weak 

cold front associated with the low will move into the far NW Gulf 

Sun night where it will stall. This will weaken the pressure 

gradient across the basin allowing for improving marine conditions

for the start of the week. By Tue night, moderate to fresh SE 

winds in the western Gulf with gentle to moderate winds in the 

eastern Gulf will prevail, continuing through mid-week under high 

pressure. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please 

refer to the Special Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the NW Caribbean, 7

to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere,

except 3 to 5 ft across the approach to the Windward Passage with

fresh to locally strong winds just beginning to develop there.  

Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are

moving across the remainder of the basin producing isolated to 

scattered passing showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will dominate the basin 

this weekend, with winds pulsing to minimal gale-force just 

offshore N Colombia at night through at least Sun night. 

Meanwhile, long- period east swell will lead to rough seas through

the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next 

week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat outside of the 

central Caribbean early next week as the pressure gradient 

weakens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure just NW of Bermuda

near 33N65W to the Central Bahamas, with fresh to strong 

northerly winds and rough seas west of it. A surface trough is 

analyzed east of the front, running from 26N71W to NW Haiti. 

Moderate to fresh NW winds are on the west side of the trough 

axis. Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are related to 

these features. High pressure of 1027 mb located near 28N37W and 

its associated ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 

forecast waters. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail 

across the southern periphery of the ridge over the Tropical 

Atlantic south of 23N. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per recent in-

situ and remote sensed observations. Gentle to moderate 

anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 26N under

the ridging, with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of

the open Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 8 ft north of 26N and east

of the cold front, except 7 to 11 ft over the NE High Seas area to

the Canary Islands in NW swell associated with a cold front

extending SW from the Iberian Peninsula.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of about 22N through early next week with rough seas. Meanwhile, 

a cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Central Bahamas with

fresh to strong winds and rough seas west of it. The front will 

reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to

central Cuba around sunrise, then stall and weaken from near 

29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun with the fresh to 

strong winds and rough seas following through Sat night. Looking 

ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next 

week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. Moderate to

fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern forecast 

waters by midweek. 



$$

Lewitsky