****0000006965**** AXNT20 KNHC 251715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ..CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect for the next 24 hours or so: gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, from 13N southward between 71W and 78W in the coastal waters of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, elsewhere from 14N southward between 77W and 80W. Mostly strong to some fresh NE winds are from 70W westward from the Greater Antilles southward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, away from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for slight seas from the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the SE corner of the area, and in the coastal waters of Venezuela from 70W eastward. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Sierra Leone, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 03N24W, crossing the Equator along 32W/33W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from the coast of Mexico that is along 24N to the SE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1032 mb high pressure center is in NE Alabama. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the south of the line that runs from the Tampa Florida metropolitan area to the coast of the Deep South of Texas/NE Mexico. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Rough seas are from 24N south from 90W westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the southern half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the northern half of the Gulf. High pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. with associated ridging extending southward across the eastern and central Gulf will shift east-southeastward through Sun. Lingering rough seas in the SW Gulf from recent gale winds will continue to subside through this evening. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the SW Gulf will shift north to the west-central and NW Gulf this afternoon and tonight, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the southeastern Gulf will subside through tonight. A weak cold front may move into the far NW Gulf Sun night and stall. This will weaken the pressure gradient across the basin allowing for improving marine conditions for the start of the week. By Tue night, moderate to fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf along with gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf will prevail, continuing through midweek under high pressure. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale-Force Wind Warning has been issued for the coastal waters/ parts of the offshore waters of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An east-to-west oriented surface trough is in the coastal plains/in the coastal waters of Honduras from 84W westward. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are to the north of the line that runs from western Jamaica to 16N80W, to the eastern coast of Honduras. A separate surface trough passes through the SE Bahamas to SE Cuba. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 66W from eastern Puerto Rico to the coast of Venezuela. Mostly fresh to some strong cyclonic wind flow is from Puerto Rico southward between 63W and 71W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC, are: 0.14 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong winds will dominate the basin this weekend, with winds pulsing to minimal gale-force just offshore N Colombia at night through at least Sun night. Meanwhile, long- period east swell will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N69W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. A surface trough is about 200 nm to the SE of the stationary front. Rough seas are from 24N northward between 70W and the Bahamas, and to the north and northwest of the NW Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas are from the Bahamas westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC, are: 0.80 in Bermuda; and 0.03 in the Bahamas, in Freeport and in Nassau. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A 1028 mb high pressure center is close to 28N40W. Moderate or slower winds are within 150 nm to 300 nm on either side of 24N68W 24N64W 26N51W 27N38W 29N26W 31N14W. Strong NE winds are from 05N to 23N between 20W and 46W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from the ITCZ and South America to 25N15W 25N30W 24N43W 23N52W 21N60W. Moderate seas are from 17N northward between 40W and 70W. Rough seas are from 40W eastward, and from 17N southward between 40W and 60W. Fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 22N through early next week with rough seas. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Central Bahamas with fresh to strong winds and rough seas west of it. The front will reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba around sunrise, then stall and weaken from near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun with the fresh to strong winds and rough seas following through Sat night. Looking ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. Moderate to fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern forecast waters by midweek in advance of an upcoming cold front. $$ mt/ja