****0000007273****
AXNT20 KNHC 252322

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2240 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: The pressure gradient between strong high

pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and low pressure

across NW Colombian will continue to support fresh to strong 

trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through 

the next several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force 

tonight and into the early Sun morning along the coast of 

Colombia, and then again Sun night through early Mon morning.  

Seas are forecast to build to 11-12 ft during these periods of 

strongest winds. These gale-force winds and seas to 10 ft and

higher are expected within about 150 nm of the NW coast of 

Colombia each night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas 

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Sierra 

Leone, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 03N24W, 

crossing the Equator along 32W/33W, to 01S39W. Widely scattered moderate

to locally strong convection is noted S of 05.5N and E of 35W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08N between 44W and

53W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1024 mb is centered inland across eastern Mexico

near Cerro Azul, with a persistent surface trough analyzed from

the waters just offshore of Tampico to the central Bay of

Campeche. This high pressure has weakened considerably in the past

12 hours, and winds W of the trough have become variable at less

than 15 kt. Seas are 4 o 7 ft W of this trough. Meanwhile, a 1034

mb high is centered across the southeastern U.S. and extends a

ridge south and southwestward to Central America and the trough in

the W Gulf. Fresh to strong E winds extend from the northern

Yucatan waters west then northwestward, becoming strong S-SE winds 

across the western Gulf waters between the trough and 93W. Seas

are 5 t 8 ft in this area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 

anticyclonic winds prevail across the rest of the Gulf, where seas

are 3 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal waters.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the central Bahamas

into the Straits of Florida, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Cold air 

stratocumulus clouds are noted over the NE Gulf.



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the southeastern 

U.S. will shift east-southeastward through Sun. Fresh to strong 

east to southeast winds in the west-central and NW Gulf will 

diminishing to fresh speeds Sun afternoon, while fresh to strong 

NE winds and rough seas in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of 

Florida will subside through early Sun. A weak cold front will 

move into the far NW Gulf Sun night and stall. This will weaken 

the pressure gradient across the basin allowing for improving 

marine conditions for the start of the week. By Tue night, 

moderate to fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf along with 

gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf will prevail, 

continuing through midweek under high pressure. Fresh east to 

southeast wind are expected over most of the basin, except for the

extreme eastern part N of the Florida Keys on Thu and Thu night. 

Fresh east winds are also expected in the Straits of Florida Thu 

and Thu night.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning is in effect the waters within 150 nm of the NW coast

of Colombia tonight and again Sun night. Please refer to the 

Special Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong N-NE to NE winds prevail

across the NW Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Seas are 6 to

9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft E of 70W. 

Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are 

moving across the eastern basin, and also extend from south of

Jamaica to coastal Nicaragua, producing isolated to scattered 

passing showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin will decrease in coverage during the early part of 

the upcoming week, being more confined to the central part of the 

Caribbean basin by around midweek. Winds will pulse to minimal 

gale-force just offshore northern Colombia tonight and Sun night. 

Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce rough 

seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into 

early part of the upcoming week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 1017 mb low pressure SE of Bermuda near

32N60W to the Central Bahamas, with fresh to strong N to NE winds

and rough seas to 10 ft west of it to the Bahamas.  Low level 

clouds, with areas of light to moderate rain, are within 120 nm W

of the front. High pressure of 1026 mb located near 27N34W extends

a ridge westward and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 

forecast waters. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail 

across the southern periphery of the ridge over the Tropical 

Atlantic south of 22N. Seas are seas 8 to 12 ft per recent in- 

situ and remote sensed observations east of 50W and 7 to 9 ft

between 50W and the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic 

winds prevail across the waters north of 23N under the ridging, 

with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the open 

Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft north of 26N and east of the 

cold front, except 7 to 11 ft over the NE High Seas area to the 

Canary Islands in NW swell associated with a cold front extending 

SW from the Iberian Peninsula.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will remain in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of 22N through early next week with rough seas, as the ridge

persists. Meanwhile, a cold front from near 31N60W to 26N65W will 

become stationary to eastern Cuba this evening, then stall and 

weaken from near 29N55W to 25N59W to the southeastern Bahamas and 

to near the eastern tip of Cuba early on Sun. Fresh to strong 

northeast winds are expected at that time to be south of about 25N

and west of the front. Looking ahead, fairly tranquil marine 

conditions will prevail early next week as weak high pressure 

settles in over the region. Moderate to fresh west winds along 

with building seas may be seen in the far northern forecast waters

by midweek in advance of an upcoming cold front. This front is

expected to reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas Thu.



$$

Stripling