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AXNT20 KNHC 260455

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high

pressure of 1032 mb centered near the coast of South Carolina  

and low pressure across NW Colombian will continue to support 

fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central 

Caribbean early this week. Winds are expected to pulse to gale- 

force early this morning along the coast of Colombia, and then 

again tonight through early Mon morning. Seas are forecast to 

build to 12 or 13 ft during these periods of strongest winds. 

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong

trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf 

of Venezuela.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center, at the website:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia

near 07N11W and continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from

13N19W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection can be 

found from 00N to 05N between 05W and 12W, and from 01N to 05N 

between 19W and 23W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1032 mb located near the coast of South Carolina

extends a ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf 

region while a trough persists over the SW Gulf. This pattern 

supports fresh to strong return flow in the western Gulf with 

moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds in the eastern Gulf. Fresh

to locally strong winds are observed in the Straits of Florida. 

Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the western Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere,

except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal waters. Cold air stratocumulus

clouds are noted over the central Gulf. Low level clouds, with 

patches of light rain are noted over the NW Gulf. 



For the forecast, low pressure over the central U.S. and high 

pressure ridging across the Gulf will support fresh to strong 

return flow in the western Gulf with moderate to locally fresh 

winds in the eastern Gulf through today. A weak front will move 

into the NW Gulf by early Mon, stalling and dissipating over the 

NW Gulf coastal waters through Mon night. Mainly gentle to 

moderate winds will prevail across the basin early this week, 

increasing to moderate to fresh by mid-week as the pressure 

gradient tightens, then fresh to locally strong by the end of the 

week. Moderate seas in the eastern Gulf and locally rough in the 

western Gulf will subside by Mon, then may build back later in the

week with the increasing winds.

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters near the coast of

Colombia through early Mon morning. Please refer to the Special 

Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin, including the Windward Passage, and the

offshore waters of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong N to NE winds 

prevail across the NW Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 10 ft based 

on buoy observations. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the south-central 

Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft E of 70W. Patches of low level clouds, 

embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the eastern 

Caribbean, and also extend from south of Jamaica to coastal 

Nicaragua, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin will decrease in coverage during the early part of 

this week, being more confined to the central part of the Caribbean

basin by around midweek. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force 

just offshore northern Colombia tonight and Sun night. Meanwhile, 

long-period east swell will continue to produce rough seas through

the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early part of 

the upcoming week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from a weak 1020 mb low pressure located E 

of Bermuda near 32N55W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Fresh 

to strong N to NE winds are W of front mainly S of 27N with rough

seas to 10 ft E of the Bahamas. A band of low level clouds, with 

areas of light to moderate rain, is associated with the front. 

Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen behind the frontal boundary

over the western Atlantic reaching parts of the E coast of Florida.

High pressure of 1032 mb located near the coast of South Carolina

follows the front. Its associated ridge extends across the western

Atlantic, the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. E of the front, 

a 1029 mb high pressure situated near 28N32W dominates the remainder

of the Atlantic forecast waters. A band of fresh to strong NE to 

E winds prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge over 

the Tropical Atlantic south of 22N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within 

these winds per a recent altimeter pass. Gentle to moderate 

anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 23N under 

the influence of the ridge, with moderate to fresh winds across 

the remainder of the open Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft 

north of 26N and east of the cold front, except 8 to 10 ft in long

period NW swell E of 35W to the Canary and Madeira Islands. 



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and rough

seas will persist in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south of 

22N through early this week. The above mentioned cold front will 

completely stall and weaken from near 29N55W to 25N59W to the SE 

Bahamas early on Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected

at that time to be south of about 25N and west of the front. 

Looking ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early

next week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. 

Moderate to fresh west winds along with building seas may be seen 

in the far northern forecast waters by midweek in advance of an 

upcoming cold front. This front may reach from near 31N70W to the 

NW Bahamas Thu. 



$$

GR