****0000006966****
AXNT20 KNHC 260835

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0800 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high

pressure of 1031 mb centered near Savannah, Georgia and low 

pressure across NW Colombian will continue to support fresh to 

strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 

early this week. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force early 

this morning along the coast of Colombia, and then again tonight 

through into early Mon morning. Seas are forecast to build to 12 

or 13 ft during these periods of strongest winds. Please refer 

to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at the website:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia

near 06N10.5W and continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends 

from 03N19W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Widely scattered

moderate convection can be found from 01N to 05N between 10W and 

30W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1031 mb located near Savannah, Georgia extends a

ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region 

while low pressure of 1022 mb is located near the Texas Hill

Country along a slow moving front. This pattern supports fresh to

strong return flow in the western Gulf with moderate to locally 

fresh NE to E winds in the SE and south-central Gulf, including the

Straits of Florida. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE and

north-central Gulf. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the western Gulf west

of 94W, 4 to 7 ft in the central Gulf between 85W and 94W, and 3 

to 5 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal waters. 

Lingering cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the 

central Gulf. Low level clouds, with patches of light rain are 

noted over the NW Gulf. 



For the forecast, low pressure over the Texas Hill Country and 

high pressure extending from near Savannah, Georgia to southern 

Louisiana will support fresh to strong return flow in the western 

Gulf with moderate to locally fresh winds in the eastern Gulf 

through today. A weak front will move into the NW Gulf late 

tonight into early Mon, stalling and dissipating over the NW Gulf 

coastal waters through Mon night. Mainly gentle to moderate winds 

will prevail across the basin for the end of the weekend through 

early next week, increasing to moderate to fresh mid-week as the 

pressure gradient tightens, then fresh to locally strong by the 

end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh seas in the 

SW half of the Gulf will subside by Mon, with slight to moderate 

seas elsewhere into the early part of the week. Seas may build 

back late in the week with the increasing winds. 

 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters near the coast of

Colombia through early Mon morning. Please refer to the Special 

Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin, including the Windward Passage, the Lee of

Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and the offshore waters of Nicaragua. 

Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean spreading into

the SW Caribbean in NE to E swell, 5 to 8 ft elsewhere west of

72W, and 4 to 6 ft east of 72W. Patches of low level clouds, 

embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the eastern 

Caribbean, and also extend from south of Jamaica to coastal 

Nicaragua, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin through the remainder of the weekend will decrease in

coverage during the early part of the week, being more confined 

to the central part of the Caribbean basin by around midweek. 

Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force just offshore northern 

Colombia early today and again tonight. Meanwhile, long-period 

east swell will continue to produce rough seas through the 

Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early part of the 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weakening cold front from 30N55W to 24.5N68W is stalling to 

eastern Cuba near 21.5N77W. The front is followed by fresh to 

strong north to northeast winds and rough seas immediately behind

it, with gentle to moderate winds and subsiding seas offshore

northern Florida and NE of the Bahamas under 1031 mb high pressure

centered near Savannah, Georgia. A band of low level clouds, with

areas of light to moderate rain, is associated with the front. 

Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen behind the frontal boundary

over the western Atlantic reaching parts of the E coast of 

Florida. East of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure situated near 

28N38W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A 

band of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the southern 

periphery of the ridge over the Tropical Atlantic mainly south of 

23N/24N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds per earlier 

observations. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across

the waters north of 23N/24N under the influence of the ridge, 

with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the open 

Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft north of 23N and east of the 

cold front, except 8 to 10 ft in long period NW swell east of 

about 37W to the Canary and Madeira Islands. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the front will completely stall and

weaken from near 29N55W to 25N59W to the SE Bahamas later this 

morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected at that time

to be south of about 27N and west of the front. Meanwhile, fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas will remain in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south 

of 22N through the early part of the week with rough seas. Fairly

tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere for the early 

part of the week as weak high pressure settles in over the region.

Moderate to fresh west winds along with building seas may be seen

in the far northern forecast waters Tue through midweek in 

advance of a pair of cold fronts. The first front may remain north

of the area, while the second front may reach from near 31N70W to

the NW Bahamas Thu. 



$$

Lewitsky