****0000006595****
AXNT20 KNHC 261633

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1633 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: 

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb 

centered over Savannah, Georgia and low pressure across NW 

Colombian will continue to support fresh to strong trades and 

rough seas across the south-central Caribbean early this week. 

Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force along the coast of 

Colombia tonight through early Mon morning. Seas are forecast to 

build to 12 or 13 ft during these periods of strongest winds. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Liberia near 06N10.5W and continues SW to near 01N19W. The ITCZ 

extends from 01N19W to near 01S44W. Widely scattered moderate 

convection can be found from 00N to 05N east 29W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1032 mb located over Savannah, Georgia extends 

a ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region 

while low pressure of 1022 mb is located over Texas Hill Country 

along a slow moving front. This pattern supports fresh to strong 

return flow in the western Gulf with moderate to locally fresh 

NE to E winds in the SE and south-central Gulf, including the 

Straits of Florida. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE and 

north-central Gulf. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the western Gulf 

west of 93W, 4 to 6 ft in the central Gulf between 86W and 93W, 

and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal 

waters. Lingering cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over 

the central Gulf. Low level clouds, with patches of light rain 

are noted over the NW Gulf. 



For the forecast, low pressure over the Texas Hill Country and 

high pressure extending from near Savannah, Georgia to southern 

Louisiana will support fresh to strong return flow in the 

western Gulf with moderate to locally fresh winds in the eastern 

Gulf today. A weak front will move into the NW Gulf late tonight 

into early Mon. It will stall and dissipate over the NW Gulf 

coastal waters through Mon night. Mostly gentle to moderate 

winds will continue over the basin through Tue before increasing 

to moderate to fresh speeds at mid-week as the pressure gradient 

tightens, then increasing further to fresh to locally strong 

speeds by the end of the week. Slight to moderate seas are 

expected throughout the basin into midweek, thereafter, seas 

will build over the western Gulf under increasing southerly flow.

  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters near the coast of

Colombia through early Mon morning. Please refer to the Special 

Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin, including the Windward Passage, the Lee 

of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and the NE Caribbean. Seas are 7 

to 12 ft in the south-central Caribbean spreading into the SW 

Caribbean in NE to E swell, with 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A weak 

surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated 

showers are depicted along this trough. Patches of low level 

clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the 

eastern Caribbean, producing isolated to scattered passing 

showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin will change little today and tonight, then begin to 

decrease in coverage on Mon, being more confined to the central 

Caribbean waters by midweek. Winds will pulse to minimal gale- 

force just offshore northern Colombia tonight into early Mon 

morning. Meanwhile, long- period east swell will continue to 

produce rough seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward 

Islands into early part of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weakening cold front extends from 31N48W to 28N58W is stalling 

to eastern Cuba near 21.5N77W. The front is followed by fresh to 

strong northeast winds and rough seas immediately behind it, 

with gentle to moderate winds and subsiding seas offshore 

northern Florida and NE of the Bahamas. A band of low level 

clouds, with areas of light to moderate rain, is associated with 

the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen behind the 

frontal boundary over the western Atlantic reaching parts of the 

E coast of Florida. East of the front, a 1029 mb high pressure 

situated near 28N34W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic 

forecast waters. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail 

across the southern periphery of the ridge over the Tropical 

Atlantic mainly south of 22N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these 

winds. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the 

waters north of 22N under the influence of the ridge, with 

moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the open 

Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft north of 23N and east of the 

cold front, except 7 to 9 ft in long period NW swell east of 

about 30W to the Canary and Madeira Islands. 



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong east winds south 

of 25N west of 73W, and also south of 23N east of 73W will begin 

to diminish this afternoon. Seas over these waters will subside 

through Mon. A stationary front extending from near 29N55W to 

26N66W and to eastern Cuba will start to weaken today. 

Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail for 

the early part of the week as weak high pressure settles in over 

the region. Moderate to fresh west winds along with building 

seas may be seen in the far northern forecast waters Tue through 

midweek in advance of a pair of cold fronts. The first front may 

remain north of the area, while the second front may reach from 

near 31N68W to the NW Bahamas Thu.



$$

KRV