****0000007230****
AXNT20 KNHC 262245

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: 

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1031 mb

centered over southern Georgia and low pressure across NW

Colombian will continue to support fresh to strong trades and

rough seas across the south-central Caribbean early this week.

Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force within 90 nm along the

coast of NW Colombia tonight through early Mon morning. Seas are

forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft during the period of strongest

winds. Wind are then expected to pulse to near gale-force each of

the next few night into mid week, with seas building to around 11

ft each early morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas 

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Liberia near 07N11W and continues SW to near 02N18W. The ITCZ 

extends from 02N18W to 01N22.5W to 02.5N34W to near 00N47W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to

05N east 36W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1031 mb located over southern Georgia extends a 

ridge south and southwestward into the Gulf region while low 

pressure of 1022 mb is located over the Texas Hill Country along 

a slow moving front. This pattern supports fresh return flow in 

the western Gulf with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds in 

the SE and south-central Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. 

Winds are gentle to moderate in the NE and north- central Gulf. 

Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the western Gulf west of 93W, 4 to 6 ft in

the central Gulf between 86W and 93W, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, 

except 3 ft or less in the NE coastal waters. Lingering cold air 

stratocumulus clouds are noted over the south central Gulf.

Overcast low level clouds, with patches of light rain are noted 

over the NW Gulf. 



For the forecast, low pressure located over northeast Texas and 

high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf is presently 

allowing for fresh southeast to south winds to exist over the NW 

Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the 

remainder of the Gulf, except for fresh northeast winds over the 

southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. The high pressure will 

shift eastward tonight as a weak cold front moves into the NW 

Gulf late tonight into early Mon. The front will stall and 

dissipate over the NW Gulf coastal waters through Mon night. 

Mostly gentle to moderate winds will then continue over the basin

through Tue before increasing to moderate to fresh speeds at mid-

week as the pressure gradient tightens, then increasing further 

to fresh to locally strong speeds by the end of the week. Slight 

to moderate seas are expected throughout the basin into midweek, 

thereafter, seas will build over the western Gulf under increasing

southerly flow. Winds are forecast to diminish on Fri as a slow 

moving cold front moves into the western Gulf.

  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the waters near the coast of

Colombia through early Mon morning, as strong trade winds across

the south central Caribbean increase to gale-force tonight. 

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.



Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central 

Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the 

remainder of the basin, including the Windward Passage, the Lee 

of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and the NE Caribbean, as a broad

high pressure ridge persists along 31N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in 

the south-central Caribbean spreading into the SW Caribbean in NE

to E swell, with 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. Broken low to mid level

clouds and scattered showers prevail across the Gulf of Honduras.

Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are

moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated to widely

scattered passing showers.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin will begin to decrease in coverage on Mon, becoming 

more confined to the central Caribbean waters by midweek. Winds 

will pulse to minimal gale-force just offshore NW Colombia 

tonight into early Mon morning. There is a chance that winds could

again pulse to gale-force speeds again late at night on Thu and 

Fri. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce 

rough seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands 

into early part of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N62W, then is 

stalling to eastern Cuba. The front is followed by fresh to 

strong northeast winds and rough seas within 120 nm behind it, 

with gentle to moderate winds and subsiding seas offshore northern

Florida and NE of the Bahamas. A band of low to mid-level clouds,

with areas of light to moderate rain, is associated with the 

front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are seen behind the frontal 

boundary over the western Atlantic reaching parts of the E coast 

of Florida. East of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure situated 

near 28N33W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 

waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the southern

periphery of the ridge over the Tropical Atlantic mainly south of

22N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate 

anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 22N to the

front, under the influence of the ridge, with moderate to fresh 

winds across the remainder of the open Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5

to 7 ft north of 23N and east of the cold front, except 7 to 9 ft

in long period NW swell east of about 30W to the Canary and 

Madeira Islands. 



For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 

near 29N55W to 25N65W and to eastern Cuba will weaken to a trough

on Mon, with fresh to strong winds on either side of it

diminishing. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will 

prevail for the early part of the week as weak high pressure 

settles in over the region. Fresh to strong west winds along with 

building seas are expected in the far northern forecast waters 

Tue through midweek in advance of a pair of cold fronts. The first

front is expected to remain north of the area, while the second 

front will reach from near 31N57W to 24N65W and stationary to 

northern Hispaniola before weakening into a trough from near 

25N55W to 23N60W by late Fri night.



$$

Stripling