****0000006430**** AXNT20 KNHC 270406 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge north of the Caribbean and low pressure across NW Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through early this week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale-force within 90 nm along the coast of NW Colombia tonight through early Mon morning. This was shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft during the period of strongest winds. Winds are then expected to pulse to near gale- force each of the next few night into mid week, with seas building to around 11 ft each early morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and between 20W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends into the Gulf of Mexico, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the SE Gulf waters, especially south of 25N and east of 87W. This was noted in the latest scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure dominates the basin with fresh to strong NE winds and locally rough seas in the SE Gulf through the Straits of Florida, with mainly moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas elsewhere. The high pressure will shift slightly eastward tonight as a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Mon. It will stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf coastal waters through Mon night. Mostly gentle to moderate winds will continue over the basin through Tue before increasing to moderate to fresh speeds mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens, then increasing further to fresh to locally strong speeds by the end of the week. Slight to moderate seas are expected throughout the basin into midweek, thereafter, seas will build over the western Gulf under increasing southerly flow. Winds are forecast to diminish on Fri and Fri night as a slow moving cold front moves into the basin from the NW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about the Gale Warning in effect off NW Colombia. Pockets of low-level moisture traversing the Caribbean Sea support isolated, light showers. The heaviest showers are seen off the eastern coast of Nicaragua. The basin is under the influence of a strong ridge to the north. Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin. The strongest winds are noted in the north- central Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally rough seas prevail across the Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority of the basin will begin to decrease in coverage on Mon, being more confined to the central Caribbean waters by midweek. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force just offshore northern Colombia tonight into early Mon morning. There is a chance that winds could again pulse to gale-force speeds again late at night on Wed through Fri. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas in the Tropical N Atlantic and through the Passages of the Windward Islands through much of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N59W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front to the eastern coast of Cuba. No significant convection is noted near this boundary. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of broad ridging, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 27N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system centered near 28N33W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 27N and east of 60W. Seas in the area described are 6-10 ft. Northerly swell producing seas of 8-11 ft are present north of 27N and between 16W and 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a dissipating stationary front extends from near 27.5N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds and locally rough seas south of 25N and west of the front will diminish into early Mon while the front dissipates to a remnant trough. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades south of 22N, locally strong near Caribbean Passages, will diminish Mon night, except lingering in the Tropical N Atlantic through midweek. Fresh to strong west winds along with building seas may be seen in the far northern forecast waters Mon night through midweek in advance of a pair of cold fronts which will propagate through the northern waters this week. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail for the early part of the week as weak high pressure settles in over the central waters. Looking ahead, high pressure will become centered near Bermuda by the end of the week with moderate to fresh trades across much of the waters. $$ Delgado