****0000006122****
AXNT20 KNHC 270911

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong

ridge north of the Caribbean and low pressure across NW Colombia

will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas 

across the south-central Caribbean through early this week. Winds

to gale-force within 90 nm along the coast of NW Colombia will

diminish around sunrise today. Seas are expected to build to 

around 13 ft through early morning. Winds are then expected to 

pulse to near gale-force each of the next few nights into mid 

week, with seas building to around 11 ft each early morning. Winds

may be near gale-force again at night Wed night through Fri night. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters through the

coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 

01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to 00N24W to 02N37W to the

coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 

observed from 02N to 03N between 14W and 17W, and from 01S to 06N

between 25W and 37W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



High pressure dominates the basin with gentle to moderate return 

flow across the basin and slight to moderate seas, except locally 

fresh in the SE Gulf including through the Straits of Florida. 



For the forecast, high pressure will shift eastward as a front 

currently stalled near the Texas coast moves into the Gulf, 

stalling and dissipating along the northern Gulf outer coastal 

waters boundary. High pressure will rebuild across the basin with 

light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf and gentle to moderate 

elsewhere through mid-week. Winds will increase Wed night through 

Thu night reaching moderate to fresh across the basin Thu night as

the gradient tightens ahead of the next front. Slight to moderate

seas will build ti locally rough especially in the NW and north 

central Gulf with the increasing winds. That next front may move 

into the western Gulf Thu night, reaching across the central Gulf 

by Fri night. 

  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning in effect off NW Colombia.



Pockets of low-level moisture traversing the Caribbean Sea support

isolated, light showers. The heaviest showers are seen off the

eastern coast of Nicaragua. The basin is under the influence of a

strong ridge to the north. Aside from the strong to gale-force

winds in the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient 

between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in 

the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds over

much of the basin. The strongest winds are noted in the north-

central Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba as well as the approach

to the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Moderate to 

locally rough seas prevail across the Caribbean.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the majority 

of the basin will begin to decrease in coverage today, being more 

confined to the central Caribbean waters by mid-week. Winds will 

pulse to minimal gale-force just offshore northern Colombia before

sunrise today. There is a chance that winds could again pulse to 

gale-force speeds again late at night later in the week. 

Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally

rough seas in the Tropical N Atlantic and through the Passages of

the Windward Islands through much of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A trough from just SE of Bermuda through 27N64W to the north 

coast of Hispaniola supports fresh winds south of 25N and west of 

70W with elevated seas. An old stationary front is analyzed from

31N46W to 29N54W to 29N62W with little impacts as it is becoming

diffuse. High pressure of 1027 mb is located near 30.5N75.5W with

an east to west ridge west of the trough. Light to gentle

anticyclonic winds are found north of 17N and west of the trough

under the ridging. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in this area. The rest of 

the Atlantic is dominated by 1028 mb high pressure centered near

29N38.5W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 27N and west of

20W. Moderate to fresh trades are found south of 26N between the

high and ITCZ, locally strong central portions. Seas are 7 to 11

ft across these waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of

the basin, except 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell north of 27N and

east of 42W.



For the forecast west of 55W, the trough wind gradually become 

diffuse through tonight with winds and seas southwest of it 

diminishing. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh trades south of 22N, 

locally strong near Caribbean Passages, will gradually diminish 

tonight, except lingering in the Tropical N Atlantic through mid- 

week. Fresh to strong west winds along with building seas may be 

seen in the far northern forecast waters late tonight through mid-

week in advance of a pair of cold fronts which will propagate 

through the northern waters this week. Otherwise, fairly tranquil 

marine conditions will prevail for the early part of the week as 

weak high pressure settles in over the central waters. Looking 

ahead, high pressure will become centered near Bermuda by the end 

of the week, with moderate to fresh winds around the southern and 

western periphery of the high.



$$

Lewitsky