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AXNT20 KNHC 271643

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1630UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters near 

10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends 

from 02N20W to 02N33W to 00N48W. Numerous moderate convection is 

observed from 01S to 07N between 23W and 31W. Similar convection

is noted from 02N to 05N east of 15W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A stationary front is analyzed over the NW Gulf. Isolated showers

are depicted near the stationary front. Elsewhere, high pressure 

dominates the basin with mainly gentle return flow across the 

basin and slight to moderate seas, except moderate E winds in the 

SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida. 



For the forecast, a stationary front extends across the northwest

Gulf, with high pressure dominating the remainder of the basin. 

This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the 

basin and slight to moderate seas. The frontal boundary will move 

into the eastern Gulf overnight, then stall again across the 

norther Gulf through mid week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and

locally rough seas will follow the western portion of the front 

as it lifts northward Thu, in response to developing low pressure 

over northeast Mexico lifting northward into the U.S. Southern 

Plains. A trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf 

Thu night, and reach across the central Gulf by Fri night. 

  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture traversing the Caribbean Sea support

isolated, light showers. The basin is under the influence of a 

strong ridge to the north. Aside from the strong to near gale-

force winds in the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient 

between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in 

the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE to E winds over much 

of the basin. The strongest winds are noted in the north-central 

Caribbean, south of Hispaniola and south of Puerto Rico. Moderate

to locally rough seas prevail across the Caribbean.



For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist across the 

central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off 

Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over the central Caribbean 

and Windward Passage by Thu as high pressure builds north of the 

area, with winds pulsing to minimal gale-force Thu night off 

Colombia. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to 

produce locally rough seas in tropical Atlantic waters east of the

Windward and Leeward Islands and through Atlantic passages of the

Windward Islands through much of the week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A trough extends from 31N46W southwestward through 28N62W to the 

northwest coast of Hispaniola. High pressure of 1030 mb is 

located near 32N33W with an with an east to west ridge. Light to 

gentle anticyclonic winds are found north of 27N and west of the 

trough under the ridging. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Moderate

to fresh trades are found south of 26N between the high and ITCZ,

locally strong winds are found in the tropical Atlantic. Seas are

7 to 11 ft across these waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the 

remainder of the basin, except 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell north

of 27N and east of 39W.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is centered near 

30N73W, west of a a trough that extends from 31N55W to the 

Windward Passage. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E 

winds and moderate seas south of 27N, and gentle breezes and 

slight seas north of 27N. The high pressure and trough will 

dissipate tonight ahead of a cold front that will move into the 

waters off northeast Florida by early Tue. The front weaken as it 

reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early Wed, then 

dissipate ahead of a second, stronger front expected to move into 

the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu. The second 

front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central 

Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in

the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the high pressure will 

shift eastward by late Fri, allowing fresh southerly wind and 

locally rough seas off northeast Florida. 



$$

KRV