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AXNT20 KNHC 272323

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2300 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic waters near 

10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends 

from 02N20W to 03N35W to 00N49W. Numerous moderate convection is 

observed from 00N to 08N between 24W and 49W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A stationary front is analyzed over the NW Gulf. Isolated showers

are depicted near the stationary front. Elsewhere, high pressure 

dominates the basin with mainly gentle return flow across the 

basin and slight to moderate seas, except moderate E winds in the 

SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move through the 

northern Gulf through tonight, then stall from central Florida to 

south Texas through mid week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 

rough seas will follow the western portion of the front as it 

lifts northward Thu, in response to developing low pressure over 

northeast Mexico and moving into the U.S. Southern Plains. A 

trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, 

reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late 

Fri, then stall from near Naples, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico

by late Sat.

  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Pockets of low-level moisture traversing the Caribbean Sea support

isolated, light showers. The basin is under the influence of a 

strong ridge to the north. Aside from the strong to near gale-

force winds in the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient 

between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in 

the deep tropics support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over 

much of the basin. The strongest winds are noted in the north-

central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola and south of Puerto Rico

where locally strong winds may be occurring. Moderate to locally 

rough seas prevail across the Caribbean.



For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist across the 

central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing off 

Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over the central Caribbean 

and Windward Passage by Thu as high pressure builds north of the 

area, with winds pulsing to minimal gale-force Thu night off 

Colombia. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to 

produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the 

tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands 

and their passages into the Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A trough extends from 31N45W southwestward through 29N61W to the 

northwest coast of Hispaniola. High pressure of 1030 mb is located

near 33N33W with an east to west ridge. Light to gentle 

anticyclonic winds are found north of 27N and west of the trough 

under the ridging. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Moderate to 

fresh trades are found south of 26N between the high and ITCZ, 

locally strong winds are found in the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 

7 to 11 ft across these waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the 

remainder of the basin, except 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell north

of 27N and east of 39W.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered near 30N73W 

is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas south of

27N, and gentle breezes and slight seas north of 27N. The high 

pressure and trough will dissipate tonight ahead of a cold front 

that will move into the waters off northeast Florida by early Tue.

The front weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the northern 

Bahamas early Wed, then weaken thereafter ahead of a second, 

stronger front expected to move into the waters between northeast 

Florida and Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken 

along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high 

pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. 

Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward by late Fri, 

allowing fresh southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast

Florida into Sat. 



$$

AReinhart