****0000004957****
AXNT20 KNHC 281717

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami 

FL 1815 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1630 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes enters the Atlantic near 05N10W and 

extends southwestward to 02N14W. The ITCZ extends from 02N14W to 

the Equator at 24W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 

roughly 01S to 07N east of 14W and between 30W and 37W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A weak cold front extending from from Cedar Key, to the north- 

central Gulf to 1018 mb low pressure near 27N96W has stalled as 

it continues westward to near NE Mexico. Some scattered showers 

are found near either side of the front with an isolated 

thunderstorms possible. Showers are also noted over the SW Bay 

of Campeche in association with a surface trough. Gentle to 

moderate winds are found over the Bay of Campeche and the 

Yucatan Channel along with 3 to 4 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to 

gentle winds prevail with seas 2 to 4 ft. 



For the forecast, a weak cold front extends from Cedar Key, 

Florida to weak 1018 mb low pressure off Corpus Christi, Texas. 

Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the 

western portion of the front as it lifts northward Wed night and 

Thu, in response to developing low pressure moving from 

northeast Mexico into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing 

cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach 

from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, 

then stall from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico 

by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will 

follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds 

behind the front will diminish Sat night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



A tight pressure gradient is over the central Caribbean between 

lower pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure 

positioned north of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are in the 

central portion with 6 to 8 ft seas, locally 8 to 11 ft near the 

coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the 

remainder of the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean, 

and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters. 



For the forecast, fresh trade winds will persist across the 

central Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds pulsing 

off Colombia, and also in the lee of Cuba beginning there 

tonight. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force Wed night and 

Thu night off Colombia. Winds and seas will increase over much 

of the Caribbean including the Windward Passage by Thu as high 

pressure builds north of the area. Meanwhile, long-period east 

swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much 

of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward 

and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with 

northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough 

seas. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front currently moving off the northeast Florida coast.

A trough extending from 30N63W to the Windward Passage moderate 

to fresh W winds and moderate 4 to 8 ft are found north of 27N, 

west of 64W. While strong SW winds are found north of 30N. 

Gentle breezes and slight seas are east of the trough. There is 

a 1030 mb high pressure located well to the east of the trough 

near 31N21W and is the dominant feature across the open waters. 

Fresh to locally strong trades are south of the Canary and 

Madeira Islands to 27N35W to near the NE Caribbean, with gentle 

to moderate anticyclonic flow to the north and under the 

ridging. North of the Canary Islands seas are 11 to 15 ft in 

northerly swell. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in mainly NE to E swell 

from south of 31N35W to near the NE Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft 

north and west of there. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 

weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas early 

Wed, then further weaken thereafter ahead of a second, stronger 

front expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida 

and Bermuda Thu. The second front will stall and weaken along 

roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high 

pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. 

Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing

fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off

northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. 





$$

KRV