****0000005707****
AXNT20 KNHC 292249

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: 

A tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean will support

strong to gale-force winds offshore northwestern Colombia during

the nighttime hours from tonight through at least Mon night. Seas

will peak at 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. Please refer 

to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued 

by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the southern Guinea 

coast to 09N20W. Further south, an ITCZ extends from 04N20W 

to 00N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the 

monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 10W and 17W. 



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A warm front extends from near Galveston Bay to near New Orleans,

Louisiana, then continues eastward as a dissipating stationary

front to near the Florida Big Bend. Scattered moderate convection

is noted N of this boundary. A weak low pressure that was near

Tampico, Mexico, has moved farther inland this evening and

associated convection has dissipated. Most of the Gulf is

dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1023 mb center offshore

Tampa Bay. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at 

the northeastern Gulf. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 

3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.



For the forecast, in the wake of the warm front, fresh to strong 

southerly winds and rough seas will develop tonight and Thu, in 

response to a low that moved into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new,

trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, 

reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late 

Fri, then stall and dissipate from near the Florida Keys to 

Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh 

northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore 

Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night with 

tranquil conditions expected across the basin Sun into at least 

Mon night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the Special Features section on a Gale Warning.



A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin. Fresh to

strong ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-

central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 

7 ft exist at the southwestern, north-central and southeastern

basin, including waters near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate 

E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean

Sea.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to 

rough seas will persist across the central Caribbean, with fresh 

to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of 

Cuba through early Fri, and in the Gulf of Honduras Thu night 

through Fri night. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue

to produce locally rough seas through early next week in the 

tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands 

and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell 

arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough curves southwestward from the north-central

Atlantic across 31N58W to over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate

convection is seen near and east of this feature north of 25N

between 50W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for

additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Mainly moderate SE 

to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large E to SE swell

are found north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Gentle to moderate SW

to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are 

present north of 20N between 60W and the southern Georgia/Florida 

coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and 

the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 

7 to 10 ft in large NE to E swells are evident. Gentle to moderate

NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell 

prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.



For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to move 

into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into

Thu. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the 

central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the 

Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift 

eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and 

locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into 

Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east 

of 70W Fri and Sat, while yet another front may move into the NW 

waters Sat where it will stall and dissipate into Sun. Looking 

ahead to Mon, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes 

north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough 

seas in E swell south of 24N, except for locally strong winds in 

the approaches of the Windward Passage. 



$$

Konarik