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AXNT20 KNHC 300539

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0520 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...



A tight surface pressure gradient, that is in the central 

sections of the Caribbean Sea, will support pulsing gale-force 

winds and rough seas, offshore Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 

74.5W and 75.5W. The gale-force winds will be present during the 

overnight hours, starting tonight, and repeating on Thursday 

night. Expect also: strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and 

rough seas, elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 74W and 80W; strong

to near gale-force NE to E winds, and moderate seas, elsewhere

from 10N to 14N between 70W and 76W including in the Gulf of

Venezuela. Expect fresh winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, in

the remainder of the area that is from 10N to 11N between 76W and

80W. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is 

issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.



Slight to moderate seas are from 70W eastward, and from 20N

northward from 80W westward. Slight seas are in the remainder of

the Caribbean Sea.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of

Liberia, to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W, to the 

Equator along 29W, to 02S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered 

to scattered moderate/isolated strong is: from 03N southward from

03W eastward; from 07N to 02S between 09W and 30W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A 1021 mb high pressure center is close to 26N84W. Broad surface

anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf. Fresh SE winds are from 87W

westward. Moderate or slower anticyclonic wind flow covers the

remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are in 

the offshore waters of the Deep South of Texas. Slight seas cover 

the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.



Fresh to locally strong SE winds and locally rough seas will 

occur across the central and western Gulf tonight through Thu 

night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure over

the eastern Gulf and strengthening low pressure in the south- 

central United States. A cold front associated with the 

aforementioned low will move into the northwestern Gulf Thu night,

leading to fresh N to NE winds in its wake Fri morning into early

Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and locally very rough seas 

will be possible in the southwestern basin offshore of Veracruz 

Fri afternoon through Sat morning. Looking ahead, building high 

pressure this weekend will lead to gentle to moderate winds and 

slight to moderate seas across the basin into early next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a

Gale-Force Wind Warning that is covering the coastal waters of

Colombia. The warning period starts tonight. It stops on Thursday

morning, and it starts again from Thursday night until Friday

morning. Fresh NE to E winds are in the NW corner of the area

from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds 

are from 70W eastward, and elsewhere from 80W westward. Strong NE

winds, and moderate to near-rough seas, are in the Windward 

Passage.



A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 64W/65W, from

15N to 20N. 25N70W, through the SE parts of the Bahamas, through 

SW Dominican Republic, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea.



Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning 

offshore of Colombia through early next week. Elsewhere, moderate 

to fresh trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will occur

across the Caribbean into this weekend as the pressure gradient 

tightens between high pressure in the western Atlantic, deepening 

low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Colombian low. Winds 

will pulse to strong speeds across the central basin as well as 

through the Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola and in the 

lee of Cuba through this weekend. A long-period E swell will 

combine with a new N swell this weekend to produce locally rough 

seas in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and 

Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 14N to 26N between 20W 

and 37W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 20N to 29N 

from 20W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough

seas, are elsewhere within 700 nm on either side of 23N19W 17N31W

13N42W 09N52W; and from 17N southward between 52W and 60W. Expect

also: fresh winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, elsewhere from

07N to 28N between 35W and 58W. 



A surface trough is along 31N58W 29N60W 24N63W, beyond 18N65W, to

15N65W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: fresh to strong SW

winds, moderate to rough seas, and scattered moderate to isolated

strong, are from 28N northward between 40W and 56W. Strong or 

faster winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 29.5N 

northward from 63W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the 

remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. 



Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds, associated with a cold 

front N of the area, will occur tonight through Fri morning north 

of 29.5N and west of 60W as the front moves eastward. Building 

seas will occur behind the front through Sat before the swell 

moves east. Farther east, fresh to locally strong SW winds will 

occur north of 28N and east of 60W into Fri morning as a trough 

prevails in the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade 

winds and rough seas in E swell will occur south of 25N through 

early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are 

expected to develop by early Fri north of 20N and west of 60W on 

the periphery of high pressure building offshore of the Carolinas,

with winds continuing through Sat morning as the high moves 

eastward. Another front is expected to progress offshore of the 

southeastern coast of the United States on Fri, producing fresh to

strong winds and rough seas in its wake. Looking ahead to Mon, 

high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 25N, 

and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E 

swell south of 25N, except for locally strong winds in the 

approaches of the Windward Passage. 



$$

mt/ea