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AXNT20 KNHC 301107

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1030 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning 

offshore of Colombia through early next week as the pressure 

gradient tightens between high pressure in the western Atlantic, 

deepening low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and the Colombian 

low. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. 

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters 

Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and

www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES...

Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds in the following

zones: FARADAY, ALTAIR, ROMEO and north of ACORES, and CHARCOT.

Please refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ

continues from 03N15W to 01S38W. Widely scattered moderate 

convection is occurring from 01S to 05N between 13W and 45W.



...GULF OF MEXICO...



A 1023 mb high is centered near 28N84W, and low pressure over

south Texas is strengthening. This pattern is supporting moderate

to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with locally strong winds

occurring offshore of Texas and northern Mexico, west of 95W. Seas

range from 1-3 ft across the northeastern Gulf, with seas of 2-5

ft across the remainder of the basin. 



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE winds and locally 

rough seas will occur across the central and western Gulf through 

tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure 

over the eastern Gulf and strengthening low pressure in the south-

central United States. A cold front associated with the 

aforementioned low will move into the northwestern Gulf tonight, 

leading to fresh N to NE winds in its wake Fri morning into early 

Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and locally very rough seas 

will be possible in the southwestern basin offshore of Veracruz 

Fri afternoon through Sat morning. Looking ahead, building high 

pressure this weekend will lead to gentle to moderate winds and 

slight to moderate seas across the basin into early next week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted across the basin, with

strong E winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean. 

Localized gale force winds prevail offshore of Colombia as the 

pressure gradient tightens between ridging in the eastern Gulf of 

Mexico and the monsoon trough. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely

near strong winds. Elsewhere, a long-period E swell is promoting 

locally rough seas just east of the Windward Islands and through 

the passages into the eastern Caribbean Seas. Slight seas are 

noted across the remainder of the basin. 



For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and 

early morning offshore of Colombia through early next week. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas 

will occur across the Caribbean through this weekend as the 

pressure gradient tightens between high pressure in the western 

Atlantic, deepening low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and the 

Colombian low. Winds will pulse to strong speeds across the 

central basin as well as through the Windward Passage, downwind of

Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba through this weekend. A long-

period E swell will combine with a new N swell this weekend to 

produce locally rough seas in the tropical Atlantic waters east of

the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the 

Caribbean. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough has been analyzed from 31N55W southwestward to

15N62W in the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong

S to SW winds are occurring east of the trough axis, mainly north

of 28N. A cold front north of the area extends over much of the

northwestern Atlantic, and fresh to locally strong W to NW winds

are occurring to the south of the front, generally north of 29.5N

between 60W and 80W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trade winds and

rough seas prevail through much of the open waters of the 

Tropical Atlantic south of 25N. Strong to near-gale force winds 

are found offshore of Morocco and downwind of the Canary Islands, 

where seas of 8 to 12 ft are found. 



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds, 

associated with a cold front N of the area, will occur this 

morning north of 29.5N and west of 60W as the front moves 

eastward. Building seas will occur behind the front through Sat. 

Farther east, fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur north of

28N and east of 60W this morning as a trough prevails in the 

region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough 

seas in E swell will occur south of 25N through early next week. 

Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected to develop by 

early Fri north of 20N and west of 60W on the periphery of high 

pressure building offshore of the Carolinas, with winds continuing

through Sat morning as the high moves eastward. Another front is 

expected to progress offshore of the southeastern coast of the 

United States on Fri, producing fresh to strong winds and rough 

seas in its wake. Looking ahead to Mon, high pressure along 30N 

will support gentle breezes north of 25N, and moderate to fresh E 

winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 25N, except 

for locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward 

Passage. 



$$

ADAMS