****0000007155****
AXPZ20 KNHC 010239

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next strong gap wind event

across the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin in the next

few hours as a ridge builds southward across the eastern slopes 

of the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico, behind a cold 

front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong NW to N 

winds to near 30 kt have begun to spill across the immediate 

waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the past hour or so. Wind 

are forecast to increase to 30 to 35 kt in the next few hours

then expand offshore overnight, with seas building to 12 ft later 

tonight into Sat. Gale conditions and rough seas are expected to 

persist through early Sun morning before diminishing below gale 

force. Fresh to strong winds will then continue through at least 

Mon night. 



Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the

National Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 

details. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 1005 mb low pressure located 

over northwestern Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 10N85W to 06N99W. 

The ITCZ continues from 06N99W to 07.5N131W, then resumes from 

06.5N136W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong

convection is noted from 03.5N to 07.5N east of 92W. Scattered 

moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N west of 

125W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, 

refer to the Special Features section for more details.



A broad ridge, centered on a 1025 mb high pressure located near 

31N124W, extends southeastward to offshore of Manzanillo, Mexico

and dominates the Baja California offshore waters. This ridge 

supports moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja 

California Peninsula, with winds then becoming northerly and

extending southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and to

15N. Fresh NW to N winds are noted over the central and southern

parts of the Gulf of California, extending southward to near 

19N, including along the coast near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 5 

to 7 ft across the southern Gulf of California to offshore of

Manzanillo, 4 to 6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters of 

Baja California, and 3 ft or less seas in the northern Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, aside from the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec 

gale-force gap wind event discussed above, the current ridge 

centered west of Baja California will generally remain in place, 

and slowly weaken through the weekend, before shifting SW and 

weakening further early next week. This pattern will produce 

moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across 

the Baja offshore waters through this evening before winds 

diminish modestly over the weekend. As this occurs, seas will 

subside very slightly through Mon. In the southern Gulf of 

California, expect fresh to locally strong winds tonight, then 

will gradually become moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 

moderate seas across the central and southern parts of the Gulf 

through Sat, then diminish more significantly Sun. Winds will be 

moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through 

the next several days. Looking ahead, moderate W-NW swell will 

move through the Baja offshore waters late Mon through Tue night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A broad high pressure ridge extends from the west central 

Atlantic southwestward across the NW Caribbean to Central 

America and the Yucatan Peninsula. This ridge is producing 

moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region, 

spreading downstream to about 88W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. 

Farther east, the same high pressure system supports gentle to 

moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 3 ft

downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N. Elsewhere, 

moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered north through northeast

of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap 

winds across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week 

with peak seas building to around 8 ft each late night through

morning. Gentle to moderate N winds will prevail in the Gulf of 

Panama. These winds across Panama are expected to pulse to 

locally fresh speeds Sun night and Mon night, as strong trades 

across the south-central Caribbean funnel into the Gulf of 

Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will

prevail elsewhere. Seas generated in the gap wind areas of 

Tehuantepec and Papagayo are forecast to impact the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this upcoming 

weekend. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge centered on

a 1025 mb high pressure situated near 31N124W, extending 

southward into the forecast region north of the ITCZ between 105W

and 140W. Fresh to locally strong trades are found across the 

southern periphery of the ridge, covering a large area from 06N 

to 21N W of 115W as noted in afternoon satellite scatterometer 

data. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with this zone of winds, with a few 

areas to 11 ft. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted 

across most of the waters N of 20N, with the exception of the NW 

corner of the forecast area where southerly winds are on 

increase between the above mentioned ridge and a deepening low 

pressure system located N of Hawaii. Gentle to moderate winds 

and moderate seas or less are occurring across the remainder of 

the open waters, including south of the ITCZ.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas 

across the tradewind zone will persist through tonight. These 

conditions will begin to slowly improve Sat into early next week 

as the high pressure center slowly weakens, resulting in a 

weakening pressure gradient. A cold front, forecast to remain W 

of the forecast area, will bring increasing winds and building 

seas over the NW waters, particularly N of 28N and W of 135W

tonight through Sun. Seas will build to 12 to 14 ft NW of a line

30N137W to 28N140W by Sun afternoon. Moderate to large W to NW 

swell will dominate the waters N of 20N and W of 130W Sat through

the middle of the upcoming week.



$$

Stripling