****0000006694****
AXPZ20 KNHC 011546

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale conditions are currently 

ongoing in the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14.5N 

with fresh to strong northerly winds extending farther south to 

near 12N. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft with the strongest 

winds. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected to persist 

through early Sun morning before diminishing below gale force. 

Fresh to strong winds will then continue through Mon night, then 

will pulse to strong again Tue night. 



Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the

National Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 

details. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure located 

over northwestern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N87W to 06N98W. The 

ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 07N110W to 06N130W to beyond

07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

noted from 04N to 07N east of 81W to the coast of Colombia, and 

from 05N to 10N west of 121W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details.



A broad ridge, centered on a 1026 mb high pressure located near 

30N126W, extends southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, 

Mexico and dominates the Baja California offshore waters. This 

ridge supports moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds west of 

the Baja California Peninsula, with winds then becoming northerly

and extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to

fresh NW to N winds are noted over the central and southern 

parts of the Gulf of California, extending southward to along the

coast near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the 

central Gulf of California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, as 

measured by recent satellite altimeter data, 4 to 6 ft in NW 

swell across the offshore waters of Baja California, and 3 ft or 

less seas in the northern Gulf of California.



For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 

gap wind event discussed above, the current ridge centered west 

of Baja California will generally remain in place, and slowly 

weaken through the weekend, before shifting SW and weakening 

further Sun night through early next week. This pattern will 

produce moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas

across the Baja offshore waters today before winds diminish 

modestly over the reminder of weekend. As this occurs, seas will

subside very slightly through Mon. In the central and southern 

Gulf of California, winds will gradually become moderate to 

fresh NW to N winds with moderate seas today, then diminish more

significantly Sun. Winds will be moderate or weaker with mainly 

moderate seas elsewhere through the next several days. Looking 

ahead, moderate W-NW swell will move through the Baja offshore 

waters Mon through Tue night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A broad ridge extends from the west central Atlantic southwestward

across the NW Caribbean into the Yucatan Peninsula. This ridge 

is producing moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds across the 

Papagayo region, spreading downstream to about 90W. Seas are 5 

to 8 ft there. Farther east, this same high pressure ridge 

supports gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of 

Panama. Seas are 3 to 4 ft downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to

beyond 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, high pressure will continue across the western

Atlantic to the north of the area and support pulsing fresh to 

strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region through the 

middle of next week. Peak seas will build to around 8 ft each 

late night through morning. Gentle to moderate N winds will 

prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and are expected to pulse to 

locally fresh speeds Sun night and Mon night, as strong trades 

across the south-central Caribbean funnel into the Gulf of 

Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in

SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated in the gap wind 

areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo are forecast to impact the 

outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun

evening. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge centered on

a 1026 mb high pressure situated near 30N126W, extending 

southward into the forecast region north of the ITCZ between 110W

and 140W. Fresh to locally strong trades are found across the 

southern periphery of the ridge, covering a large area from 07N 

to 14N W of 118W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within this zone of winds.

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted across most of the

waters N of 20N, with the exception of the NW corner of the 

forecast area where southerly winds are on the increase between 

the above mentioned ridge and a deepening low pressure system 

located N of Hawaii. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

or less are occurring across the remainder of the open waters, 

including south of the ITCZ. 



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas 

across the tradewind zone will begin to slowly improve today  

into early next week as the high pressure center to the north 

slowly weakens, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient. Deep 

low pressure north of Hawaii and an associated cold front are 

forecast to remain W of the forecast area through Mon, and will 

bring increasing southerly winds and building seas over the NW 

waters, particularly N of 25N and W of 135W through Sun. Seas 

will build to 12 to 14 ft NW of a line 30N138W to 28N140W by Sun

afternoon. Moderate to large W to NW swell will dominate the 

waters N of 20N and W of 130W today through the middle of the 

upcoming week.



$$

GR