****0000007412****
AXPZ20 KNHC 020827

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun Feb 2 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0730 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Overnight satellite scatterometer

wind data showed an area of minimal gale force N winds across 

the Tehuantepec region extending offshore to near 15N, with fresh

to strong northerly winds extending farther south to near 13.5N.

These northerly gales will continue overnight, with seas 

expected to build to 11-12 ft before sunrise. Gale force winds 

and rough seas are expected to persist through Sun morning 

before diminishing below gale force by mid morning. Fresh to 

strong winds will then continue through Wed morning.



Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the

National Hurricane Center at website

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 

details. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure located 

over northwestern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 09.5N85W to 05.5N92W

to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 07N122W to 06N131W

to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from

05N to 07.5N east of 85.5W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered 

moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N 

between 119W and 138W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details.



High pressure of 1023 mb is located near 30N126W with an 

associated ridge extending southeastward to beyond the 

Revillagigedo Islands to near 18N105W. This ridge continues to 

dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and 

supports moderate NW to N winds west of the Baja California 

Peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds then becoming northerly

and extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate 

NW to N winds are noted over the central and southern parts of 

the Gulf of California, extending southward to along the coast 

near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across the offshore 

waters of Baja California, 5 to 6 ft offshore of Cabo 

Corrientes, and 3 to 4 ft across the central and southern parts 

of the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the 

northern Gulf of California. Light winds and moderate seas in 

mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder of the Mexican

offshore waters, from western Oaxaca to Colima. 



For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 

gap wind event discussed above, the current ridge centered west 

of Baja California will drift east and weaken slightly through 

Sun, then shift SW and weaken further Sun night through Mon,  

ahead of a frontal system forecast to move SE of 30N140W today. 

This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the 

Baja California offshore waters through Tue. As this occurs, seas

will subside slightly through early Mon. In the Gulf of 

California mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas will 

prevail over the next several days. Winds will be moderate or 

weaker with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through the next 

several days. Moderate W to NW swell will move through the Baja 

offshore waters Mon through Tue night, then moderate NW swell 

Wed through Thu.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A broad ridge extends from the west central Atlantic southwestward

across the NW Caribbean. This ridge is producing fresh to locally 

strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to about 89W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. 

Farther east, this same high pressure ridge supports moderate 

northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama. Outside of the 

Papagayo area, seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the offshore 

forecast waters, except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance to the Gulf

of Panama, and 5 to 7 ft across the outer waters off of 

Guatemala, where NW swell from Tehuantepec continues.



For the forecast, modest high pressure will prevail across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean through the middle

of the upcoming week. This pattern will support pulsing fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region through the 

middle of next week. Peak seas will build to near 8 ft each late

night through morning. Gentle to moderate N winds will prevail 

in the Gulf of Panama, and are expected to pulse to locally fresh

speeds Sun night and Mon night, as strong trades across the 

south-central Caribbean funnel into the Gulf of Panama. Moderate

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will 

prevail elsewhere. Seas generated in the gap wind areas of 

Tehuantepec and Papagayo are forecast to impact the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun evening 

building seas to near 8 ft. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1023 mb situated near 30N126W dominates most of

the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 102W. Overnight satellite 

scatterometer data showed an area of fresh to locally strong 

trades across the southern periphery of the ridge, covering the 

waters from 07N to 17N W of 113W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within 

this zone of trade winds. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow 

is noted across most of the waters N of 18N, with the exception 

of the NW corner of the forecast area where fresh to strong 

southerly winds prevail N of 27N and W of 137W, between the  

ridge and a deep low pressure system located N of Hawaii.

Westerly swell producing seas of 8 to 12 ft currently dominate

these far NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

or less are occurring across the remainder of the open waters, 

including south of the ITCZ. 



For the forecast, the area of fresh to locally strong winds and 

rough seas across the trade wind zone will diminish through Sun

as the high pressure center to the north slowly weakens, 

resulting in a weakening pressure gradient. Deep low pressure 

north of Hawaii and an associated cold front are forecast to 

move eastward and weaken through Tue. The cold front will move 

just SE of 30N140W by Sun afternoon and weaken, reaching 30N135W

to 23N140W by Mon morning. The weakening low will pass just north

of 30N140W Mon morning, accompanied by strong W to SW wind across

the far northwest waters Mon morning through afternoon. This 

system will also bring building seas in large W swell over the 

NW waters this afternoon and tonight. Seas will build to 10 to 15

ft in W-NW westerly swell NW of a line 30N128W to 21N140W by 

Tue morning. Moderate to large W to NW swell will dominate the 

waters N of 20N and W of 122W through the middle of the upcoming

week.



$$

Stripling