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AXPZ20 KNHC 030247

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0130 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure located 

over northwestern Colombia near 10N74W to 09.5N83W to 04.5N97W. 

The ITCZ continues from 04.5N98W to 07N124W to beyond 07.5N140W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N east 

of 88.5W to the coasts, and from 05.5N to 11.5N between 113W and

140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Winds and seas continue to slowly diminish across the 

Tehuantepec region this evening, although winds remain near 30 kt

to the north of 15N. Currently, fresh to strong N to NE winds 

extend south and southwestward from Tehuantepec to 14.5N, with 

peak seas likely 9 to 10 ft. Wind gusts to minimal gale force 

are expected through Mon. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1019 mb is

located near 29N122W. The associated ridge extends southeastward

to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge continues to 

dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and 

supports gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds west of the 

Baja California Peninsula. Similar winds speeds are also noted 

across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds, 

across the SE periphery of the ridge, extend southward to beyond 

the Revillagigedo Islands, except for fresh NW winds near the

coast of Cabo Corrientes. Light and variable winds dominate the 

remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of the 

Tehuantepec region, seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except in the 

Gulf of California and coastal waters of Baja California, mainly 

S of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 1 to 3 ft range.



For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the eastern slopes

of the Sierra Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico supporting fresh

to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night,

with seas generally persisting near 8 to 9 ft, then mainly 

moderate to fresh winds will prevail through mid week with seas 

subsiding slightly to 5 to 7 ft. The current ridge centered west 

of Baja California will drift east and weaken slightly tonight, 

then shift SW and weaken further through Mon, ahead of a frontal 

system forecast to move across the NW forecast waters. This 

pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja 

California offshore waters through mid week. As this occurs, seas

will subside slightly through early Mon. In the Gulf of 

California mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas will 

prevail over the next several days. Winds will be moderate or 

weaker with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through the next 

several days. Moderate W to NW swell will move through the Baja 

offshore waters Mon through Tue night, then moderate NW swell Wed

through Thu.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Midday satellite scatterometer data showed a broad NE gap wind

event occurring across the waters west of 85W, with fresh to 

locally strong NE winds extending from the Papagayo region,

across the NW coastal waters of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca,

southwestward to near 93W. Winds are assumed to have increased

very slightly since that time across this same area. Seas are 5 

to 8 ft within these winds. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to 

moderate N winds prevail extending downwind to about 05N and W of

78.5W. Seas there are 4 to 5 ft. Outside of the Papagayo area, 

seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across the offshore forecast waters,

and 5 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and 

El Salvador, where NW swell from Tehuantepec continues.



For the forecast, modest high pressure will prevail across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean through the middle

of the week. This pattern will support pulsing fresh to strong 

NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region through the middle 

of the week. Peak seas will build to around 8 ft each late night

through morning. Gentle to moderate N winds will prevail in the 

Gulf of Panama, and are expected to pulse to fresh speeds mainly 

at night through Tue night, as strong trades across the south- 

central Caribbean funnel into the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail

elsewhere. Seas generated in the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec 

and Papagayo will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of

Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight, maintaining seas to 

near 8 ft.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1019 mb situated near 29N122W dominates most of

the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 106W. Moderate to locally 

fresh trades were observed per afternoon scatterometer data 

across the southern periphery of the ridge, covering the waters 

from 07N to 16N W of 110W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within this zone 

of trade winds. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted 

across most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W to 130W. W of

130W, fresh to strong southerly winds prevail N of 25N and W of 

134W. These winds are ahead of a cold front that has entered the

NW forecast waters this afternoon, and extends from 30N138W to

27.5N140W. Westerly swell producing seas of 9 to 14 ft currently

dominate these far NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas or less are occurring across the remainder of the 

open waters, including south of the ITCZ. 



For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will reach from

30N134W to 23N140W by Mon morning, and dissipate from 30N129W to

23N140W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds will persist 

ahead of the front through Mon morning. At the same time, an 

attendant low pressure will pass just north of 30N140W Mon while

weakening. This system will be accompanied by strong SW to W 

wind and building seas to 16 ft in W to NW swell. These marine 

conditions will dominate the waters N of 26N and W of 136W by Mon

night, and N of 28N W of 127W by Tue morning. Moderate to large 

W to NW swell will spread to the waters N of 20N and W of 122W 

through the middle of the week. The area of moderate to locally 

fresh trades will continue to diminish tonight and Mon as the 

high pressure center to the north slowly weakens.



$$

Stripling