****0000006263****
AXPZ20 KNHC 031555

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N80W to 04N105W. The

ITCZ extends from 04N105W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered

moderate convection is active from 02N to 05N east of 83W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 

07N to 10N between 115W and 130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extending across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in eastern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong N 

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to about 90 nm downstream. 

Rough seas to 9 ft accompany the strong winds in this area. 

Elsewhere, the pattern is dominated by weak 1018 mb high 

pressure centered west of Baja California near 26N123W, which is

supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas, except

for light breezes and 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will persist Tue night, then mainly moderate to 

fresh winds will prevail through mid week with seas subsiding 

slightly. The weak high pressure centered west of Baja 

California will shift slowly SW and weaken further through Tue, 

ahead of a frontal system moving across the waters west of 135W 

tonight. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds 

across the Baja California offshore waters through mid week. In 

the Gulf of California mainly light to gentle winds and slight 

seas will prevail over the next several days. Moderate W to NW 

swell will move through the Baja offshore waters this afternoon 

through early Wed, followed by moderate NW swell late Wed through

Thu. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed a broad NE gap 

wind event occurring across the waters west of 85W, with fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds extending from the Papagayo region, 

across the NW coastal waters of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca,

southwestward to near 90W. Seas continue to be 6 to 9 ft within 

these winds. The earlier scatterometer data also showed fresh N 

winds across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 06N. Seas 

there are 4 to 6 ft. Outside of the Papagayo area, seas are 

generally 3 to 5 ft across the offshore forecast waters, and 6 to

7 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 

Salvador, where NW swell from Tehuantepec continues. Scattered 

showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring across the near and 

offshore waters of Colombia tonight and weakened in recent hours 

and remain east of 79W.



For the forecast, modest high pressure will prevail north of the region 

through the upcoming week. This pattern will support pulsing 

fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region 

through the middle of the week. Peak seas will build to around 8 

ft each late night through morning. Moderate to fresh N winds 

will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Tue 

morning. Rough seas generated in the gap wind areas of 

Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to impact the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through late Tue. 

Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell 

will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends from 30N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong W

winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow the front, with a component of

NW swell contributing to the wave heights. Fresh winds and 8 to 

10 ft seas are within 90 nm ahead of the front, also with a 

component of NW swell. The weak 1018 mb high pressure near

26N123W is shifting eastward ahead of the front. Farther south,

scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thunderstorms 

are active from 07N to 10N between 115W and 130W. This is due in

part to trade wind convergence into the ITCZ, but also due to

divergent flow aloft to the east of a mid/upper level low

centered above the ITCZ near 125W, also accounting for most of

the thunderstorm activity being concentrated near 10N118W.

Outside of the winds and seas already described near the cold

front, gentle breezes persist across the area except for moderate

trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N. Combined seas are 5 to 7

ft, except pushing 8 ft in the trade wind zones west of 135W.



For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move slowly and 

eastward and weaken through tonight, before reaching from from 

30N128W to 23N135W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds will 

persist ahead of the front through Tue morning. An associated low

pressure system currently NW of the area will pass just north of

30N140W late this afternoon while weakening. This system will be

accompanied by strong SW to W wind and building seas to 16 ft in

W to NW swell. This low will shift off to the NE and weaken 

tonight through Tue evening, before another low pressure center 

and strong SW winds reaches these same NW waters Wed afternoon 

and night. Fresh to locally strong W to SW winds and moderate to 

large NW swell will dominate the northwestern waters today 

through Tue evening. These marine conditions will dominate the 

waters north of 25N and west of 135W tonight, and north of 28N 

and west of 125W by Tue morning and then again on Wed. Moderate 

to large W to NW swell will spread to the waters north of 20N and

west of 120W through the middle of the week. The area of 

moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue to diminish 

today as the high pressure center offshore of Baja slowly 

weakens.



$$

Christensen