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AXPZ20 KNHC 040250

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0200 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 04N94W to 04N103W. The

ITCZ extends from 04N103W to 08.5N123W to beyond 06.5N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N east of 

93W to coastal Colombia, from 04N to 08N between 108W and 118W, 

and from 07N to 12.5N between 118W and 132W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extending across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in eastern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong N to NE

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to about 90 nm downstream. 

Rough seas to 7 ft accompany the strong winds in this area. 

Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, the current pattern

is dominated by weak 1016 mb high pressure centered west of Baja

California Sur near 23N125W. The associated ridge is supporting 

gentle to moderate NW breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas, except for

fresh NW winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are

5 to 6 ft. Light breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail inside the 

Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will persist through Wed, then mainly moderate to 

fresh winds are expected there into Fri, with seas subsiding 

gradually. Weak high pressure centered west of Baja California

Sur will shift slowly westward and weaken further through Tue, 

ahead of a frontal system moving across the waters west of 130W 

tonight. The front will move into the waters off Baja California 

Norte Wed night, then stall and become diffuse. Looking ahead, a 

stronger front will follow and move into waters off Baja 

California Norte by early Fri, then stall across the central Gulf

of California and Baja California by late Sat, followed by fresh

to strong NW winds and rough seas. Farther south, fresh to 

strong N gap winds will pulse Thu night into Sat across the Gulf

of Tehuantepec, associated with a weak front moving into 

southern Mexico. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the region is enhancing trade flow across

the southwest Caribbean and southern Central America, resulting

in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo region to NW Nicaraguan

offshore waters. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed a 

plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persisting across this

region, along with 6 to 8 ft seas extends as far west as 93W. 

Moderate to fresh N winds persist across the Gulf of Panama 

extending southward to 05N, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Farther north, 

seas are 6 to 8 ft well offshore of Guatemala due to lingering N

swell from an ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec

and NE swell spreading away from Papagayo. Gentle breezes 

persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.



For the forecast, a modest high pressure will prevail north of 

the region across the Gulf of Mexico through the upcoming week. 

This pattern will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE 

to E gap winds across the Papagayo region through the middle of 

the week. Peak seas will build to around 8 ft downstream each 

late night through morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will 

persist across the Gulf of Panama through Tue morning, then

diminish to moderate throughout the remainder of the week. Rough

seas generated in the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo

will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala 

and El Salvador through late Tue. Moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends from 30N130.5W to 20N140W. Fresh S to SW 

winds are within 300 nm east of the front and north of 25N, where

seas are 7 to 9 ft. A 999 mb low pressure center associated with

the next front to approach the area has moved eastward to near

32.5N138W. Fresh to strong W winds and 10 to 15 ft seas prevail

to the south of the low, and across the NW waters west of 135W

and north of 24N. The weak 1016 mb high pressure near 23N125W is

drifting eastward ahead of the front. Farther south, scattered 

showers and thunderstorms are active from 07N to 12.5N between

118W and 132W. This is due in part to trade wind convergence 

into the ITCZ, and divergent flow aloft to the east of a 

mid/upper level low centered above the ITCZ near 125W. Outside 

of the winds and seas already described near the cold front, 

gentle breezes persist across the area except for moderate trade 

winds north of the ITCZ to 15N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, 

except pushing 8 ft in the trade wind zones west of 138W.



For the forecast, the cold front will stall and dissipate north

of 22N and west of 125W on Tue, ahead of a second front passing 

to the southeast of 30N140W. The eastern portion of the front will

move toward Baja California before stalling and becoming diffuse

into Thu. The western half of the second front will stall E to W 

along 28N Wed before lifting northward Wed night, ahead of a 

third front that will move to the southeast of 30N140W by early 

Thu. The third front will move into Baja California Fri, then 

stall and dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong 

winds will accompany the front Thu, along with NW swell of 8 to 

10 ft. Farther to the southeast, seas will build north of the 

ITCZ east of 110W through early Wed due fresh trade winds, and 

southerly swell mixing with shorter period NE to E swell, 

originating from the gap winds over Papagayo and Tehuantepec. 

Looking ahead, trade winds and seas will build along and north of

the ITCZ west of 120W Thu through Sat in response to high 

pressure building north of the area. 



$$

Stripling