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AXPZ20 KNHC 041611

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N100W to 05N115W. 

The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to 06N125W to beyond 07N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N east of

80W, and within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ

between 90W and 120W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak ridge extending across the eastern slopes of the Sierra 

Madre Mountains in eastern Mexico continues to support fresh to 

strong N to NE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to about 90 nm 

downstream. Rough seas to 8 ft accompany the strong winds in 

this area. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, the 

current pattern is dominated by weak 1016 mb high pressure 

centered west of Baja California Sur near 21N125W. The 

associated ridge is supporting only gentle NW breezes across the 

Baja offshore waters, as verified by recent satellite 

scatterometer data. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft except to 6 ft in 

new W-NW swell across the waters near Isla Guadalupe. Gentle N 

to NE winds prevail south of Baja to beyond the Revillagigedo 

Islands, except for moderate NW winds near the coast of Cabo 

Corrientes, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Light breezes and 1 to 2 ft

seas prevail inside the Gulf of California.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will persist through midday Wed. Weak high pressure 

centered west of Baja California Sur will shift slowly westward 

and weaken further today, ahead of a frontal system moving 

across the waters near 130W tonight. The weakening front will 

move into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed night, then 

stall and become diffuse. Winds across the Baja waters will 

increase to moderate Tue night through Thu as the high pressure 

drifts northward ahead of the next cold front. This next 

stronger front will move into waters off Baja California Norte by

early Fri, then stall across the central Gulf of California and 

Baja California by late Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW winds

and rough seas. Farther south, fresh N gap winds will pulse to 

strong at night Thu into Sat across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 

associated with a weak front moving into southern Mexico. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the region is enhancing trade flow across

the southwest Caribbean and southern Central America, resulting

in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo region, the 

Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca. Overnight 

satellite scatterometer data showed a plume of fresh to strong NE

to E gap winds persisting across this region, along with 6 to 8 

ft seas extends as far west as 94W. Moderate to locally fresh N 

winds persist across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 

05N, with 5 to 6 ft seas. Farther north, winds are light and seas

are 6 to 8 ft well offshore of Guatemala due to lingering N 

swell from an ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

and NE swell spreading away from Papagayo. Gentle breezes persist

elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.



For the forecast, a modest high pressure ridge will prevail 

north of the region across the northern Gulf of Mexico through 

the upcoming week. This pattern will continue to support pulsing 

fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region 

through the middle of the week. Peak seas will build to around 8 

ft downstream each late night through morning. Moderate to

locally fresh N winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama 

through Wed morning, then diminish to moderate throughout the 

remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A surface trough, the remnant of a cold front, extends from 

30N125W to 18N140W. Fresh S to SW winds are within 120 nm east 

of the front and north of 25N, where seas are 7 to 8 ft with a 

component of NW swell. A 999 mb low pressure center associated 

with the next front to approach the area has moved eastward to 

near 34N131W. Fresh to strong W winds and 10 to 15 ft seas 

prevail to the south of the low, and across the NW waters west of

132W and north of 25N. The weak 1016 mb high pressure near 

21N125W is drifting eastward ahead of the front. Farther south, 

scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 120 nm 

either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 90W and 120W.

This is due in part to trade wind convergence into the ITCZ, and 

divergent flow aloft to the east of a mid/upper level low 

centered above the ITCZ near 125W. Outside of the winds and seas 

already described near the cold front, gentle breezes persist 

across the area except for moderate trade winds north of the ITCZ

to 15N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft, except pushing 8 ft in the 

trade wind zones west of 135W.



For the forecast, a cold front will pass to the southeast of 

30N140W to and move across the waters north of 25N overnight. 

The eastern portion of the front will move toward Baja 

California before stalling and becoming diffuse into Thu. The 

western half of the second front will stall east to west along 

28N Wed before lifting northward Wed night, ahead of a third 

front that will move to the southeast of 30N140W by early Thu. 

The third front will move into Baja California Fri, then stall 

and dissipate through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds 

will accompany the front Thu, along with NW swell of 8 to 10 ft. 

Moderate to large W to NW swell will generally dominate the 

regional waters throughout the week. Farther to the southeast, 

seas will build north of the ITCZ east of 110W through early Wed 

due fresh trade winds, and southerly swell mixing with shorter 

period NE to E swell, originating from the gap winds over 

Papagayo and Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, trade winds and seas 

will build along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W late Wed 

through Sat in response to high pressure building north of the 

area. 



$$

Christensen