****0000006138****
AXPZ20 KNHC 060856

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu Feb 6 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N83.5W to 04.5N97W to 05N112W 

to 03.5N117W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N117W to beyond 06N140W.

Scattered moderate convection is observed from 1.5N to 08N east 

of 97W to the coast of Colombia, and from 03N to 07N between 

116W and 132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 

observed from 02.5N to 11N between 98W and 116W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in eastern Mexico continues to supports fresh to 

locally strong NW to N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 

about 60 nm downstream. Rough seas to 7 ft accompany the strong 

winds in this area. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters,

the current pattern is dominated by 1019 mb high pressure 

centered west of Baja California near 25.5N121W. This weak ridge

is supporting moderate to locally fresh breezes across the Baja

near and offshore waters, and near the coast surrounding Cabo

Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail elsewhere 

across the Mexican offshore waters southward to beyond the 

Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters outside 

of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except 7 to 8 ft in NW swell 

northwest of Guadalupe Island. Gentle winds prevail across the 

Gulf of California, where seas are 1 to 3 ft.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will 

maintain fresh to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional 

rough seas across the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters 

through Sat. Farther north weak high pressure persists W of Baja

California. A weakening frontal boundary approaching the waters 

off Baja California Norte near 120W will dissipate this morning.

Moderate NW swell will follow the front through Thu night across

the Baja California waters, then subside, with highest seas to 8

ft northwest of Guadalupe Island through this morning. High 

pressure behind the front will support fresh NW winds and 

moderate to locally rough seas Thu afternoon through Fri off 

Baja California to the north of Cabo San Lazaro. Looking ahead, 

another front will move through central Baja and the central Gulf

of California Fri afternoon through Sat, accompanied by strong 

reinforcing NW winds and large N-NW swell, highest north of Cabo 

San Lazaro, with moderate NW winds across the Gulf of California.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weakening high pressure north of the region continues to enhance

trade flow across the southwest Caribbean and southern Central 

America, resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo 

region, the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, 

extending to near 90W tonight. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 

ft across this area. Moderate to fresh N winds are across the 

Gulf of Panama extending southward to 06N, where seas are 3 to 5

ft. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in 

southerly swell.



For the forecast, little change in the regional weather pattern

is expected through the weekend, as an east to west aligned ridge

persists north of the area. This pattern will continue to 

support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the 

Papagayo region through the the weekend. Peak seas will build 7 

to 8 ft downstream each late night through morning. Moderate N 

winds will pulse to locally fresh each evening and night across 

the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds 

and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A weakening cold front reaches from central California to 

30N122W to 28N128W and is becoming ill defined in satellite

imagery. Farther west, a cold front extends from the low 

pressure near 34N134.5W to 30N137W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong 

winds and rough seas 9 to 15 ft in W to NW swell accompany the 

cold front north of 26N and west of 127W. 1017 mb high pressure 

is centered near 25.5N121W. This pattern is supporting moderate 

to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 19N and W of 108W,

with seas 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Gentle to moderate 

breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere. Scattered showers 

and isolated thunderstorms are active near the ITCZ from 03N to 

11N between 98W and 120W.



For the forecast, the cold front currently across the eastern 

waters will move toward Baja California Norte and dissipate today.

The next front current moving across the northwestern waters  

will move eastward and gradually weaken, moving into the Baja 

Norte waters on Fri, then stall and dissipate through Sat. Fresh 

to strong winds will accompany this front through this afternoon,

along with NW swell of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to large W to NW 

swell from this system will generally dominate the regional 

waters throughout the week. Farther to the southeast, seas will 

remain 7 to 8 ft north of the ITCZ east of 110W through this

morning due fresh trade winds, and southerly swell mixing with 

shorter period NE to E swell, originating from the gap winds over

Papagayo and Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, trade winds and seas 

will build along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W Fri through 

Mon in response to high pressure building north of the area. Peak

seas are expected to reach 10 to 11 ft S of 20N and W of 128W on

Monday.



$$

Stripling