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AXPZ20 KNHC 062100

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Thu Feb 6 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W. The ITCZ 

extends from 05N100W to 05N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 105W and 

115W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1018 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near

25N120W. This pattern is supporting moderate NW winds off Baja 

California. Farther south, modest high pressure north of region

is supporting moderate to fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, as observed in recent scatterometer satellite data.

Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, 4 to 6 ft in the 

Tehuantepec area, 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 

5 ft elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will 

maintain fresh to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional 

rough seas across the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters 

through Sat. Farther north, weak high pressure persists west of 

Baja California. A cold front will move through central Baja and 

the central Gulf of California Fri afternoon through Sat, 

accompanied by strong reinforcing NW winds and large N-NW swell, 

highest north of Cabo San Lazaro, with moderate NW winds across 

the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish 

across the Mexican offshore waters through Tue, except for fresh 

NW winds and residual NW swell off Baja California, mainly north 

of Cabo San Lazaro. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the region continues to enhance trade 

flow across the southwest Caribbean and southern Central America,

resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo region, 

the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, extending

to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft across this 

area. Moderate to fresh N winds are across the Gulf of Panama 

extending southward to 06N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle 

breezes persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly 

swell.



For the forecast, little change in the regional weather pattern

is expected as an east to west aligned ridge persists north of 

the area, supporting pulses of fresh to occasionally strong NE to

E gap winds across the Papagayo region into early next week. 

Peak seas will build 7 to 8 ft downstream each late night through

morning. Moderate N winds will pulse to locally fresh each 

evening and night across the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. 

Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell 

will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extending from 30N130W to 25N140W is connected to a

deep 1000 mb low moving into the waters off central California.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 13 ft with NW swell

accompany the front. 1018 mb high pressure is centered east of

the front near 20N125W, with a ridge extending westward to

20N140W. This pattern is supporting fresh trade winds along and

north of the ITCZ west of 120W, reaching as far north as 15N.

Wave heights are 6 to 8 ft in this area of trade winds, assisted

by a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate

seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated 

thunderstorms are active near the ITCZ from 08N to 10N between

105W and 115W.



For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward and 

gradually weaken as it moves into the Baja California Norte 

waters on Fri, stalling and dissipating through Sat. Fresh to 

strong winds will accompany this front through this afternoon, 

along with NW swell of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to large W to NW 

swell from this system will generally dominate the regional 

waters throughout the week. Farther to the southeast, seas will 

remain 6 to 7 ft north of the ITCZ east of 110W through today due

fresh trade winds, and southerly swell mixing with shorter 

period NE to E swell, originating from the gap winds over 

Papagayo and Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, trade winds and seas 

will build along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W Fri through 

Tue in response to high pressure building north of the area. 

Peak seas are expected to reach 8 to 11 ft south of 20N and west

of 125W Tue.



$$

Christensen