****0000005114****
AXPZ20 KNHC 070938 CCA

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025



Corrected Remainder of the Area section



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0345 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N85W to 05N100W. The ITCZ

extends from 05N100W to 06N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 06N140W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is north of 

the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 09N to 13N between 103W and 

112W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the 

trough between 105W and 107W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1018 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California near

27N118W. This pattern is supporting moderate NW winds off Baja 

California. Farther south, modest high pressure north of region 

is supporting moderate to fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, 4 to 

6 ft in the Tehuantepec region, 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 

California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will 

maintain fresh to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional 

rough seas across the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters 

through Sat. Farther north, weak high pressure persists west of 

Baja California. A cold front will move through central Baja and 

the central Gulf of California Fri afternoon through Sat, 

accompanied by strong reinforcing northwest winds and large N-NW

swell, highest north of Cabo San Lazaro, with moderate NW winds 

across the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, winds and seas 

diminish across the Mexican offshore waters through Tue, except 

for fresh northwest winds and residual long-period northwest

swell off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the region continues to enhance trade 

flow across the southwest Caribbean and southern Central America,

resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo region, 

the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, extending

to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft across this 

area. Moderate to fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama 

reaching southward to near 06N, where seas are about 4 to 6 ft. 

Gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas in 

southerly swell.



For the forecast, little change in the regional weather pattern

is expected as an east to west aligned ridge persists north of 

the area, supporting pulses of fresh to occasionally strong

northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region into early 

next week. Peak seas will build to around 5 to 7 ft downstream 

each late night through morning. Moderate north winds will pulse

to locally fresh each evening and night in the Gulf of Panama 

through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will prevail 

elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected



A dissipating cold front extends from a deep 998 mb low that 

is just west of northern California, south-southwestward to

30N128W to 27N134W and to west of the area at 26N140W. A cold

front is analyzed to the east from near 30N124W to 26N130W and

to near 22N139W. Fresh north to northeast winds follow the

dissipating front along with seas of 10 to 12 ft in long- period

northwest swell. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are within

60 to 90 nm east of the leading front north of 25N. A 1018 mb 

high center is analyzed east of the front near 27N118W, with a 

ridge extending westward to near 20N140W. This pattern is 

supporting fresh trade winds along and north of the ITCZ west of 

115W, reaching as far north as 17N. Wave heights are 6 to 8 ft in

this area of trade winds, assisted by a component of long- 

period northwest well. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas

are noted elsewhere. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 

convection is present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 

09N to 13N between 103W and 112W.



For the forecast, the leading front will also undergo dissipation 

beginning late tonight and into Fri as it moves into the Baja 

California Norte waters then stalls while continuing to dissipate

through Sat. Looking ahead, trade winds and seas will build 

along and north of the ITCZ west of 120W Fri through Tue in 

response to high pressure building north of the area. Peak seas 

are expected to reach 8 to 10 ft south of 20N and west of 125W 

Tue.



$$

Aguirre