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AXPZ20 KNHC 080944

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat Feb 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0930 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 

09N74W to 09N84W to 05N91W to 04N97W to 05N103W. A trough 

extends from 09N119W to 04N125W. The ITCZ resumes west of 

this trough at 04ZN126W, and continues to 05N136W to beyond 

06N104W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the 

ITCZ between 105W and 117W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Modest ridging across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in Mexico is allowing for strong to near gale gap 

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas to 8 ft.

Meanwhile, a stationary front is analyzed from the

California/Nevada border south-southwestward from there to 

northern Baja California to 27N124W and to well west of the 

Mexican offshore waters, where it begins to weaken.  Fresh to 

locally strong northwest winds along with seas of 6 to 9 ft 

follow the front. Meanwhile, to the south of the front, a 1022 mb

high pressure center is analyzed west of Baja California near 

26N126W. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for mostly

fresh northwest to north winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, except for 

spots of winds reaching strong speeds, and light to gentle winds

between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate 

northwest winds are over the central Gulf of California while 

light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican 

offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere off Baja 

California, 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft 

elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain fresh 

to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional rough seas across

the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters today. Farther north, 

strengthening high pressure northwest of the area will bring 

moderate to fresh north northwest to north winds off Baja 

California mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Seas 

are forecast to build to 7 to 10 ft with these winds. Mainly 

light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf of

California through at least Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas 

are expected to diminish across the Mexican offshore waters 

through Tue, except for fresh northwest winds and residual 

northwest swell off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San 

Lazaro. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the region continues to enhance the trade

wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean and southern Central 

America, resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo 

region, the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, 

extending to near 90W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data

passes depicted fresh to strong northeast to east in the Gulf 

of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are about 5 to 7 ft.

Moderate to fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching

southward to near 06N. Seas there are about 4 to 6 ft. Light to 

gentle winds and moderate seas due to a long-period southwest 

swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather

pattern across the region as a ridge will persist N of area.  

This will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong 

northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region into early 

next week. Peak seas will build to around 5 to 8 ft downstream 

each late night through the morning hours. Moderate north winds 

will pulse to locally fresh each evening and at night in the Gulf

of Panama through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight

to moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will prevail 

elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A stationary front is analyzed from northern Baja California 

southwestward to 27N124W to 27N132W, where it begins to weaken

to 26N136W. An overnight scatterometer satellite data pass

highlighted an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds 

north of the frontal boundary to 30N. Seas with these winds are

8 to 10 ft. A recent altimeter satellite data pass revealed seas

up to 9 ft just west of the boundary. East of the front, a 1022 

mb high pressure center is located near 26N126W, with a ridge 

extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This 

pattern is supporting mostly fresh trade winds along and north 

of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 119W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in 

this area of trade winds from a combination of wind generated 

east swell and a northerly swell component. Gentle to moderate 

winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will 

strengthen this upcoming weekend. Its associated ridge will 

dominate most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.

As a result, the aerial extent and strength of the trades will 

increase west of 120W through Tue. Peak seas are expected to 

reach 10 or 11 ft with these winds W of 125W on Tue. 



$$

Aguirre