****0000005235****
AXPZ20 KNHC 082117

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat Feb 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure located

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N90W to 05N102W. The ITCZ

continues from 05N102W to 06N115W to 04N130W to beyond 05N104W. 

Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the ITCZ to about 

10N between 100W and 122W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Modest ridging across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in Mexico is allowing for fresh to strong N gap winds 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 14N. A recent

scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds. A 

plume of moderate to fresh N to NE winds extend farther south 

from the Tehuantepec region to near 11N98W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft 

within these winds. Meanwhile, strong high pressure of 1036 mb 

located N of area extends a ridge across the offshore forecast 

waters of Baja California supporting fresh to strong NW to N 

winds mainly N of Punta Eugenia between Baja California and 118W.

Seas are 7 to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh NW to N

winds are occurring between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia 

with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail 

across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, including the 

Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California,

and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast, the gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region

will come to and end tonight, then mainly gentle to moderate

winds will prevail through at least Tue. Farther north, the

strong high pressure located N of area will continue to support 

fresh to strong northwest to north winds off Baja California 

mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Seas are forecast to

build to 7 to 10 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. 

Mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected in the 

Gulf of California through at least Mon. Then, winds are forecast

to increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the northern Gulf 

of California Mon night into Tue as low pressure develops there. 

Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to diminish across the

Mexican offshore waters through Tue, except for fresh northwest 

winds and residual northwest swell off Baja California, mainly 

north of Cabo San Lazaro. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure situated north of the region continues to enhance 

the trade wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean and southern 

Central America, resulting in persistent gap winds across the 

Papagayo region, the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of 

Fonseca, extending to near 90W. The most recent scatterometer 

satellite data depicted moderate to fresh northeast to east in 

the Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to 89W. Seas with these 

winds are about 5 to 7 ft. Moderate north winds are in the Gulf 

of Panama reaching southward to near 06N. Seas there are about 3 

to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas due to a long- 

period southwest swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather

pattern across the region as a ridge will persist N of area.  

This will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong 

northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region mainly at

night into early next week. Peak seas will build to around 5 to 

8 ft downstream each late night through the morning hours. 

Moderate north winds will pulse to locally fresh each evening and

at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in long-period southwest

swell will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is located N of area near 40N135W.

Its associated ridge covers most of the forecast waters N of the

ITCZ and W of 110W. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally 

strong winds along and north of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 

120W based on scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this 

area of trade winds from a combination of NE wind wave and long 

period NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue

to strengthen tonight into Sun. Its associated ridge will dominate

most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. As a 

result, the aerial extent and strength of the trades will increase

west of 120W through Tue. Peak seas are expected to reach 10 or 

11 ft with these winds W of 125W on Tue. 



$$

GR