****0000007131**** AXPZ20 KNHC 090415 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N gale force winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a 1032 mb high in the south-central United States and troughing in the southwestern Caribbean. Peak winds of 35 to 40 kt will occur overnight, and seas of 16 to 18 ft will accompany the strongest winds. Rough seas will extend well beyond the Tehuantepec region, with seas in excess of 8 ft as far south as 10N by Thu morning, and to 07N by Thu evening. Winds are expected to fall below gale force by late Thu morning, with strong N winds continuing through the afternoon before diminishing Thu night. Seas will gradually diminish through Fri morning. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds will redevelop across the region early Sat into early Sun as a cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure strengthens behind the front. Another gale-force gap wind event is possible early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N124W. The ITCZ continues from 04N124W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 109W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1010 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico, and troughing prevails through the Gulf of Mexico into southwestern Mexico. Otherwise, ridging extends over the waters offshore of Baja California. This pattern supports moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds through portions of the Gulf of California and offshore of Baja. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are occurring in the northern Gulf of California south of San Felipe, with strong winds noted near Cabo San Lucas as well as offshore of Nayarit and Jalisco. Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. A long-period NW swell is producing rough seas offshore of Baja California, with very rough seas occurring along Baja California Sur. Moderate seas prevail off the coast of southwestern Mexico, with slight seas in southern portions of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur in the Gulf of California through this weekend as low pressure in northwestern Mexico drifts southeastward and troughing prevails in the region. Fresh NW winds will expand farther south to offshore of southwestern Mexico Fri through Sat morning as another upper-level low moves through northern Mexico. Pulsing fresh to strong NW to NE will occur offshore of Baja California through Sat morning, strongest Fri night into early Sat. A long- period NW swell will promote rough seas offshore of Baja California through Thu before seas subside through Fri. Looking ahead, another long-period NW swell will lead to rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte this weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as a tight pressure gradient prevails between building ridging in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and the monsoon trough over northern Panama. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are likely near the strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate winds north of the trough. Locally rough seas, generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, are occurring offshore of Guatemala. Otherwise, slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will occur across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, with winds pulsing to fresh to moderate speeds on Sat. Winds will restrengthen Sun into early next week. Seas will build to around 8 ft during the strongest winds through early Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Elsewhere, winds will remain moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters. N swell generated from the current Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the far western waters of Guatemala through early Fri, with peak seas to 10 ft possible. Little change in seas is forecast across the remainder of the waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb is centered well north of the area near 39N132W, and ridging extends through the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring in this region, with locally strong winds noted offshore of Baja California. A long-period NW swell is producing rough seas over much of the open waters, with very rough seas occurring from 23N to 25N east of 122W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, including south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. For the forecast, active convection is expected to continue across the central tropical Pacific through the remainder of the week due to a vigorous upper level trough moving through the region. The deep trough will also result in pulsing plumes of strong N-NE winds and seas to 12 ft in the NE waters into this evening. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will persist in the trades region through the upcoming weekend, briefly increasing to fresh to strong over western portions Thu night due a tightening gradient. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the next several days. Meanwhile, NW swells will continue to rotate through the waters with the highest seas mainly north of 06N and west of 108W through the next several days, where seas are forecast to be 6 ft to around 11 ft, up to 12 ft along 140W and north of 18N Thu night and Fri, then near 12 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W Sat night through Sun night. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. $$ ADAMS