****0000006720**** AXPZ20 KNHC 090842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N gale force winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient prevails between a 1029 mb high over northeastern Mexico and troughing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Peak winds of 35 to 40 kt will occur overnight, and seas of 16 to 18 ft will accompany the strongest winds. Rough seas will extend well beyond the Tehuantepec region, with seas in excess of 8 ft as far south as 09N later this morning, and to 07N by this evening. Winds are expected to fall below gale force late this morning, with strong N winds continuing through the afternoon before diminishing tonight. Seas will gradually diminish through Fri morning. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds will redevelop across the region early Sat into early Sun as a cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure strengthens behind the front. Another gale-force gap wind event is possible early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N124W. The ITCZ continues from 04N124W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 96W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1010 mb low has been analyzed over central Mexico, and troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. Otherwise, ridging extends over the waters offshore of Baja California. This pattern supports moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds through portions of the Gulf of California and offshore of Baja. Recent scatterometer satellite data show localized strong winds offshore of southern Sonora. Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. A long-period NW swell is producing rough seas offshore of Baja California. Moderate seas prevail off the coast of southwestern Mexico, with slight seas through the Gulf of California. For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur in the Gulf of California into Sat as low pressure drifts southeastward through central Mexico and troughing prevails over Baja California. Fresh NW winds will expand farther south to offshore of southwestern Mexico Fri through Sat morning as another upper-level low moves through northern Mexico. Pulsing fresh to locally strong NW to NE will occur offshore of Baja California through Sat morning, strongest Fri night into early Sat. A long-period NW swell will promote rough seas offshore of Baja California today before seas subside through Fri. Looking ahead, another long-period NW swell will lead to rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte this weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo as a tight pressure gradient prevails between building high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough over northern Panama. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are likely near the strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, with gentle to locally moderate winds north of the trough. Locally rough seas, generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, are occurring offshore of Guatemala. Otherwise, slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will occur across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, and locally rough seas will accompany the winds. Winds are expected to diminish slightly and pulse to fresh speeds this weekend before winds restrengthen early next week. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate NE winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S winds south of the trough. Rough seas generated by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to impact the far western waters of Guatemala through early Fri, with peak seas to 10 ft possible. Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1031 mb high is centered well north of the region near 35N134W and ridging extends through the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ, with locally strong E winds occurring from 08N to 22N west of 127W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to SE winds are noted. A long-period NW swell is producing rough seas across much of the open waters, generally north of 06N and west of 120W, as well as offshore of Baja California. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area and strengthen, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the ITCZ through early next week. Pulsing strong winds will be possible from 15N to 22N late tonight into Fri. The long- period NW swell will continue to produce rough seas over much of the open waters through late tonight. A reinforcing NW swell will progress into the western waters late tonight into Fri, leading to rough seas north of 05N and west of 115W through this weekend. Otherwise, active convection is expected to continue across the central tropical Pacific through the remainder of the week due to a vigorous upper level trough moving through the region. $$ ADAMS