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AXPZ20 KNHC 091525

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1440 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gale force winds 

continue early this morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a 

tight pressure gradient prevails between deep ridging over

eastern Mexico and troughing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,

with winds to 35 kt and seas of 10 to 14 ft. Winds are forecast 

to diminish below gale force within the next few hours, with 

strong northerly winds continuing into the evening before 

diminishing. Residual seas of 8 ft or greater reaching well

southwest of the Tehuantepec area to near 07N100W by early Fri 

will subside by Fri afternoon. Looking ahead, strong to gale 

force winds will redevelop across the region late Fri night/early

Sat morning into early Sun as a cold front moves through the 

Gulf of Mexico and high pressure strengthens behind the front. A

Gale Warning is also now in effect beginning Sat around sunrise,

forecast to continue into Sat evening. Yet another gale-force 

gap wind event is possible early next week.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W to

06N95W to 07N106W to 05N127W. The ITCZ extends from 05N127W to

beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N

to 09N between 77W and 82W. Widely scattered moderate convection

is noted from 05N to 10N between 92W and 103W, and from 04N to

17N between 103W and 123W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on  

Gale Warnings in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A 1009 mb low has been analyzed over central Mexico near

24.5N104.5W, and troughing prevails from NW Mexico through the

low to SW Mexico. Otherwise, ridging extends over the waters 

offshore of Baja California. This pattern supports moderate to 

locally fresh NW to N winds from near Cabo Corrientes west-

northwestward, including offshore Baja California, as well as in

the northern and southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate

winds are offshore southern Mexico west of the Tehuantepec gap

winds. NW swell offshore Baja California is decaying with seas of

7 to 10 ft. Seas are 4 to 7 ft between 98W and 110W. In the Gulf

of California, seas are 3 to 6 ft in the northern and southern

portions, with 3 ft or less in the central Gulf.



For the forecast, aside from the Gale Warnings in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur 

in the Gulf of California into Sat as low pressure drifts 

southeastward through central Mexico and troughing prevails over 

Baja California. Fresh NW winds will expand farther southeast to

offshore of southern Mexico Fri through Sat morning as another 

upper-level low moves through northern Mexico. Pulsing fresh to 

locally strong NW to NE will occur offshore of Baja California 

through Sat morning, strongest at night. A long-period NW swell 

will promote rough seas offshore of Baja California today,

gradually subsiding through Fri. Looking ahead, another long- 

period NW swell will lead to rough seas offshore of Baja 

California Norte this weekend into early next week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A tight pressure gradient is over the Papagayo region between

high pressure ridging over interior Central America and the

monsoon trough over southern Costa Rica. This pattern continues

to support fresh to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo to near 09N90W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the

offshore waters. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft away from the Papagayo

gap wind event, except locally 7 to 10 ft well offshore western

Guatemala due to the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap

wind event. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore

Panama and Colombia.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will occur 

across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri morning, and locally 

rough seas will accompany the winds. Winds are expected to 

diminish slightly and pulse to fresh speeds this weekend before 

restrengthening early next week. Elsewhere, winds will pulse

moderate to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Panama through this 

weekend. Winds will be moderate or weaker across the remainder of

the offshore waters through at least the next several days.

Rough seas generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will continue to impact the far western offshore 

waters of Guatemala through tonight, with peak seas to 10 ft 

possible. Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into 

early next week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1029 mb high is centered well north of the region near 36N134W

and ridging extends through the waters north of the monsoon 

trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail north

of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with gentle to moderate southerly

winds to the south. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW swell north of 07N

and west of 110W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. Active convection is

present over the central portion of the open waters due to a

persistent upper level trough.



For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area 

and strengthen, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds north

of the ITCZ through early next week. Pulsing strong winds will 

be possible from 10N to 22N tonight. NW swell will continue to 

produce rough seas over much of the open waters today. A 

reinforcing NW swell will progress into the western waters 

tonight into Fri, leading to rough seas north of 05N and west of 

115W through this weekend, with such seas becoming more confined

to the waters north of 15N by early next week. Otherwise, active

convection is expected to continue across the central tropical 

Pacific through the remainder of the week due to a vigorous upper

level trough moving through the region. 



$$

Lewitsky