****0000007508****
AXPZ20 KNHC 092120

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Thu Jan 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gap winds in the Gulf

of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale-force this afternoon,

now fresh to strong with residual seas of 8 to 12 ft. Winds will

diminish to 20 kt or less after sunset, while residual seas,

extending down to 07N99W at 8 ft, finally subside early Fri

evening. The improvement in marine conditions will be brief as

another northerly gap wind event is forecast to commence Fri

night as a cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico with high

pressure surging south across eastern Mexico behind it. Northerly

winds of 20 to 30 kt will return in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late

Fri night, reaching gale-force around sunrise Sat, then

diminishing back below gale-force late Sat night, and to less

than 20 kt by Sun morning. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft with 

this next event. Looking ahead, another northerly gap wind event 

is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week, with

fresh to strong winds returning Mon morning, possibly reaching

gale-force Mon evening, then continuing through at least Tue

night. Seas may build to at least 8 to 12 ft by Tue morning with

those winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N95W

to 06N115W to 05N126W. The ITCZ extends from 05N126W to 06N134W

to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted

from 04N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 06N to 10N between 92W

and 103W, and from 05N to 20N between 103W and 121W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with Gale

conditions also possible early next week.



High pressure of 1031 mb is located north of the discussion

waters near 35N134W with a ridge extending southeastward to near

the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient across the

offshore waters of Mexico to the west and northwest of the

Tehunatepec region has weakened, allowing for winds of gentle to

moderate to prevail, locally fresh still near Cabo San Lucas.

Decaying NW swell of 7 to 9 ft is west of Baja California, with

4 to 7 ft seas between there and the Tehuantepec region. In the

Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 3 ft or less in

the central portion.



For the forecast, aside from the Gale Warning in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur 

in the Gulf of California this evening into Sat as low pressure 

drifts southeastward through central Mexico and troughing 

prevails over Baja California. Similar winds will pulse offshore

Baja California later tonight into Sat. Winds will be mainly

moderate or weaker elsewhere through early next week, except

locally fresh offshore SW and southern Mexico Fri into Sat.

Meanwhile, NW swell of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California will

linger through Fri night, decaying Sat. A new set of NW swell may

move into the Baja California Norte waters Sat night through Sun

night before also decaying. Little change in seas is expected

elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A tight pressure gradient is over the Papagayo region between

high pressure ridging over interior northern Central America and

the monsoon trough over southern Costa Rica. This pattern 

continues to support fresh to near-gale force NE to E winds in 

the Gulf of Papagayo to near 09N88W per a recent ASCAT

scatterometer pass. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle 

to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore 

waters, except moderate to fresh downwind of the Gulf of Panama.

Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft away from the Papagayo gap wind event,

except locally 6 to 9 ft well offshore western Guatemala due to 

earlier gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Widely

scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Panama and 

Colombia.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will occur 

across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri morning, and locally 

rough seas will accompany the winds. Winds are expected to 

diminish slightly and pulse to fresh speeds thereafter through

Mon before increasing back to fresh to strong by Mon night.

Elsewhere, winds will pulse moderate to fresh speeds in the Gulf

of Panama through at least this weekend, mainly at night. Winds 

will be moderate or weaker across the remainder of the offshore 

waters through at least the next several days. Rough seas 

generated by a diminishing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event

will continue to impact the far western offshore waters of 

Guatemala through tonight, with peak seas to 9 ft possible. 

Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next 

week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1031 mb is located north of the discussion

waters near 35N134W with a ridge extending across the waters

north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to fresh trades

prevail from 10N to 24N and west of 115W per recent ASCAT

scatterometer data. Active convection persists across the central

waters as described above due to a persistent mid to upper level

trough, leading to locally higher winds and seas. Winds are 

moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, 

including south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 7 to 10 

ft in NW swell north of 06N and west of 110W, and 5 to 7 ft 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the monsoon

trough and ITCZ through the upcoming weekend, supporting mainly 

moderate to locally fresh trades across the waters north of the 

monsoon trough and ITCZ. Trades are forecast to briefly increase

to fresh to strong tonight from 12N to 22N west of 130W as the

pressure gradient tightens there. NW swell will continue to

support seas of 7 to 10 ft across the majority of the waters 

north of 08N and west of 110W through Sat. A set of slightly

larger and more northerly swell is forecast to push south of 30N

Sat night through Sun night, with seas building to around 12 ft

near 30N between 120W and 130W. Winds and seas are forecast to

diminish and subside somewhat early next week as the pressure

gradient across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ

relaxes. Meanwhile, active convection is expected to continue 

across the central tropical Pacific through the remainder of the 

week due to a vigorous upper level trough moving through the 

region. 



$$

Lewitsky