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AXPZ20 KNHC 100346

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Winds have fallen below gale 

force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but residual rough seas 

prevail in the region. Rough seas will subside overnight. Strong 

N gap winds will redevelop late Fri night as a cold front moves 

through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure strengthens in the 

wake of the front. Winds will quickly strengthen to gale force 

Sat morning and continue into the evening before winds rapidly 

diminish overnight into Sun. Rough seas will accompany the winds,

with peak seas near 11 ft. Seas will subside Sun morning. 

Looking ahead, a more prolonged gap wind event is expected next 

week, with fresh to strong N winds returning Mon morning, 

reaching gale-force Mon evening, then continuing through the 

middle of next week. Very rough seas are likely with these winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N120W. The ITCZ

continues from 07N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 95W 

and 115W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A 1029 mb high is centered north of the region near 35N137W with

ridging extending through the Baja California waters, while a 

trough is located just offshore of Southern California to 

32.5N118W. Elsewhere, a 1004 mb low is centered over northwestern

Mexico near 24N104W, and troughing extends northwestward to the 

border of Arizona. The pressure gradient between these features 

is leading to moderate to locally fresh N winds offshore of Baja 

California and through the Gulf of California, with gentle to 

moderate winds offshore of southwestern Mexico. Fresh to locally 

strong NW winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California. 

Locally rough seas prevail north of 17N as well as through the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec, with slight seas noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, away from redeveloping gale force winds in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to strong NW to NE winds will

occur offshore of Baja California and through the Gulf of 

California through Sat, as troughing prevails over Baja and high

pressure builds over northern Mexico and over the eastern 

Pacific. Locally fresh N winds will expand farther south to 

offshore of southwestern Mexico Fri through early Sat. Rough seas

currently offshore of Baja will slowly subside into Sat. A new 

long-period N swell associated with a cold front moving through 

Southern California will push into the Baja California Norte 

waters Sat into early next week, producing rough to locally very 

rough seas. Slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of

Papagayo as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high

pressure over northern Central America and the monsoon trough.

Elsewhere, locally fresh N winds continue in the Gulf of Panama.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the

waters. Rough seas generated by gap winds in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec are noted offshore of Guatemala. Otherwise, slight 

to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.



For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue in the Gulf of 

Papagayo through Fri as low pressure dominates the south-central 

Caribbean. Winds will diminish slightly and pulse to fresh speeds

each night this weekend before restrengthening Mon, with pulsing

strong E winds continuing through at least the middle of next 

week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are 

expected each night through this weekend in the Gulf of Panama. 

Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail across the 

remainder of the waters. Locally rough seas generated by gap 

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside overnight. Slight 

to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1029 mb high is centered north of the region near 35N137W and

ridging extends through the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon

trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring along the 

periphery of the ridge, with fresh to locally strong E winds 

noted from 12N to 22N west of 135W. South of the monsoon trough 

and ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. A long-period NW 

swell is producing rough seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 05N and west

of 115W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, high pressure will become anchored north of 

the waters into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh 

trade winds through this weekend north of the ITCZ. Periods of 

locally strong winds will be possible on Fri, mainly from 15N to

25N west of 130W. Rough seas currently impacting much of the 

open waters will be reinforced by a new long-period NW swell for 

areas north of 20N and west of 135W tonight, with rough seas 

extending farther south and east through this weekend. A new 

long-period N swell associated with a cold front moving through 

Southern California will push into the waters offshore of Baja 

California Norte Sat into early next week, producing rough to 

locally very rough seas north of 25N and east of 130W. Meanwhile,

active convection is expected to continue across the central 

tropical Pacific through the remainder of the week due to a 

vigorous upper-level trough moving through the region. 



$$

ADAMS