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AXPZ20 KNHC 100358

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0345 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb 

located over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 08N87W to 06N94W 

to 06N100W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, which then 

continues to 09N109W to 09N118W. It resumes at 08N124W to 

05N112W. The ITCZ resumes at 08N120W to 05N133W to beyond 

05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is

within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 128W and 130W, and within 30 

nm north of the ITCZ between 135W and 137W. Scattered moderate 

convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 137W and

139W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Broad high pressure that extends from a strong high center well 

north of the area southeastward across the offshore waters is 

supporting mostly fresh northwest to north winds north of Punta

Eugenia, and gentle northwest winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas

are 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia and 5 to

8 ft in northwest swell south of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle 

winds continue across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters, 

including the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 

of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast, winds in the Tehuantepec region will become 

fresh to strong from the north on Mon, diminishing to gentle 

speeds Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are expected in

the Gulf of California through Mon. Winds are forecast to 

increase to fresh to locally strong speeds in the northern half 

of the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue and then again on 

Thu as a surface trough develops there. The pressure gradient 

will tighten across the Baja California offshore waters Mon 

evening through Tue night as low pressure develops over the 

southwestern United States, and as high pressure shifts well west

of the offshore waters. This set up will lead to moderate to 

fresh northwest winds and rough seas over most of the Baja 

California offshore waters. Strong northwest winds may occur near

the coast north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into early Wed.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northwestern

Caribbean Sea and relatively lower pressure present in the 

southern section of Central America and in northern Colombia 

is maintaining the trade wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean

and southern Central America, resulting in persistent gap winds 

across the Papagayo region and also across the Nicaraguan 

offshore waters. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in 

the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 89W. Seas 

with these winds are in the range of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to 

fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching southward to

near 05N. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas due to a long-period southwest swell are elsewhere.



For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure over the

northwestern Caribbean Sea will continue to allow for pulses of 

fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east gap winds in the 

Papagayo region mainly at nigh well into the upcoming week. Peak 

seas with these winds will reach to around 7 ft. Moderate north 

winds will pulse to locally fresh each evening and at night in 

the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds 

and slight to moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will 

prevail elsewhere during the period. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Rather broad high pressure is over these waters, with the 

eastern extent of the ridging reaching to near 116W. The parent 

strong high center of 1037 mb is located well north of the 

discussion domain. A trough is analyzed from 29N138W to 25N134W.

A tight gradient between the high pressure and the trough is 

inducing fresh to strong east winds from 26N to 30N between 

131W and 138W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. A trough is

analyzed along a position from near 23N135W to 27N133W. Seas of 

8 to 9 ft in mix swell are elsewhere north of 25N west of 129W.

To the south, fresh to strong trade winds are over the western 

section of the domain from 07N to 16N along with seas of 8 to 10 

ft.



For the forecast, the tight gradient is forecast to relax 

through Mon as the trough weakens and dissipates, and while

at the same time the aforementioned strong high pressure shifts 

southward as it too weakens. This will allow for the fresh to 

strong winds that are from 26N to 30N and between 131W and 138W

to diminish to mostly fresh speeds. With the high pressure 

shifting southward, this will cause the trade winds to expand in 

coverage, covering the waters west of about 118W through Tue at 

mostly strong speeds. Peak seas are expected to reach around 10 

or 11 ft with these winds west of 130W on Tue.





$$

Aguirre