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AXPZ20 KNHC 100933

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Feb 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0915 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1009 mb 

located over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 09N85W to 07N92W 

and to 05N102W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N110W 

and to 06N121W. It resumes at 07N125W to 07N135W and to beyond

06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 126W and 130W and 

between 133W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is within

180 nm north of the ITCZ between 138W and 140W, and within 

30 nm south of the ITCZ between 138W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Broad high pressure ridging that extends from a strong high 

center well north of the area southeastward across the offshore 

waters is supporting mostly fresh northwest to north winds north 

of Punta Eugenia, and gentle northwest winds south of Punta 

Eugenia. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of Punta 

Eugenia and 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell south of Punta Eugenia. 

Light to gentle winds continue across the remainder of Mexican 

offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 

3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh to strong north winds will surge through

the northern part of the Tehuantepec region today and tonight, 

then diminish to gentle speeds Tue. Light to gentle winds and 

slight seas are expected in the Gulf of California today. Winds 

are forecast to increase to fresh to locally strong speeds in 

the northern half of the Gulf of California late tonight into 

Tue, and again on Thu as low pressure develops along a trough 

there. The pressure gradient will tighten across the Baja 

California offshore waters from this evening through Tue night 

as low pressure develops over the southwestern United States, 

and as high pressure shifts to the south well west of the 

offshore waters. This synoptic pattern set-up will lead to 

moderate to fresh northwest winds and rough seas over most of 

the Baja California offshore waters. Strong northwest winds may 

occur near the coast north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into 

early Wed.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The pressure gradient between high pressure over the northwestern

Caribbean Sea and relatively lower pressure present in the 

southern section of Central America and in northern Colombia 

is maintaining the trade wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean

and southern Central America, resulting in persistent gap winds 

across the Papagayo region and also across the Nicaraguan 

offshore waters. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in 

the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 89W. Seas 

with these winds are in the range of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to 

fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama extend southward to near

07N as noted in a recent altimeter satellite data pass. Seas 

there are 3 to 5 ft as depicted in an overnight altimeter 

satellite pass. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas arising 

from a long-period southwest swell are elsewhere.



For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure over the

northwestern Caribbean Sea will continue to allow for pulses of 

fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east gap winds in the 

Papagayo region mainly at night well into this week. Peak seas 

with these winds will reach to around 7 ft. Moderate north winds 

will pulse to locally fresh this evening and tonight in the Gulf 

of Panama and again on Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will 

prevail elsewhere during the period. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Rather broad high pressure is over these waters, with the 

eastern extent of the ridging reaching to near 116W. The parent 

strong high center of 1034 mb is located well north of the 

discussion domain. A trough is analyzed from 28N140W to 24N136W.

A tight gradient between the high pressure and the trough is 

inducing fresh to strong east winds from 26N to 30N between 131W 

and 138W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. A trough is 

analyzed along a position from near 23N135W to 27N133W. Seas of 8

to 9 ft in mix swell are elsewhere north of 25N west of 129W. To

the south, fresh to strong trade winds are over the western 

section of the domain from 07N to 16N along with seas of 8 to 10 

ft.



For the forecast, the tight gradient is forecast to relax 

through Mon as the trough weakens and dissipates, and while

at the same time the aforementioned strong high pressure shifts 

southward as it too weakens. This will allow for the fresh to 

strong winds that are from 26N to 30N and between 131W and 138W

to diminish to mostly fresh speeds. With the high pressure 

shifting southward, this will cause the trade winds to expand in 

coverage, covering the waters west of about 118W through Tue at 

mostly strong speeds. Peak seas are expected to reach around 10 

or 11 ft with these winds west of 130W on Tue. 



$$

Aguirre