****0000006157****
AXPZ20 KNHC 101555

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong N gap winds will 

redevelop tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front 

moves through the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure strengthens in

the wake of the front. Winds will quickly strengthen to gale 

force overnight and continue into Sat evening before winds 

rapidly diminish overnight into Sun. Rough seas will accompany 

the winds, with peak seas near 13 ft. Seas will subside Sun 

morning. Looking ahead, a more prolonged gap wind event is 

expected next week, with fresh to strong N winds returning Mon 

morning, reaching gale-force Mon evening, then continuing through

the middle of next week. Very rough seas are likely with these 

winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N84W TO 09N105W TO 05N126W. ITCZ FROM 

05N126W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 04N E OF 82W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W 

AND 110W.



The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N84W

to 09N105W and to 05N126W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N126W to

beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of

04N and east of 82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong

convection is occurring from 07N to 19N and between 100W and

110W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A strong ridge over the western United States extends southwards

to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting fresh to locally strong

northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly

winds are evident in the offshore waters of Baja California,

especially south of Punta Eugenia, and the offshore waters of SW

Mexico. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere,

moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, outside of the redeveloping gale force winds 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to strong NW to NE 

winds will occur offshore of Baja California and through the Gulf

of California through Sat, as troughing prevails over Baja and 

high pressure builds over northern Mexico and over the eastern 

Pacific. Locally fresh N winds will expand farther south to 

offshore of southwestern Mexico this morning through early Sat. 

Rough seas currently offshore of Baja will slowly subside into 

Sat. A new long-period N swell associated with a cold front 

moving through Southern California will push into the Baja 

California Norte waters Sat into early next week, producing rough

to locally very rough seas. Slight to moderate seas will prevail

elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to

strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region,

spreading downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.

However, winds will diminish quickly as the pressure gradient

relaxes. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of

3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate

or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of 

Papagayo today will diminish to moderate to fresh later this

morning. Winds will restrengthen Mon night, with pulsing strong 

E winds continuing through at least the middle of next week. 

Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected

each night through this weekend in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to

locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 

across the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1037 mb high pressure system located well north of the area

extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure

gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in

the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds over

much of the basin north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, 

especially west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with

the highest seas are found in the westernmost waters. Moderate or

weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will become anchored north of 

the region into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh 

trade winds through this weekend north of the ITCZ. Periods of 

locally strong winds will be possible today, mainly from 15N to 

25N west of 130W. Rough seas currently impacting much of the 

open waters will be reinforced by a new long-period NW swell for 

areas north of 15N and west of 130W this morning, with rough 

seas expanding farther south and east through this weekend. A 

new long-period N swell associated with a cold front moving 

through Southern California will push into the waters offshore 

of Baja California Norte Sat into early next week, producing 

rough to locally very rough seas north of 25N and east of 130W. 

Meanwhile, active convection is expected to continue across the 

central tropical Pacific through the remainder of the week due 

to a vigorous upper-level trough moving through the region. 



$$

Delgado