****0000006138****
AXPZ20 KNHC 102139

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A robust ridge is forecast to

set up in NE Mexico in the wake of the cold front currently 

moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The increase in pressure

gradient will result in strong N gap winds tonight in the Gulf 

of Tehuantepec. Winds will quickly strengthen to gale force 

overnight and continue into Sat evening before winds rapidly 

diminish overnight into Sun. Rough seas will accompany the winds,

with peak seas near 13 ft. Seas will subside Sun morning. 

Looking ahead, a more prolonged gap wind event is expected next 

week, with fresh to strong N winds returning Mon morning, 

reaching gale-force Mon evening, then continuing through the 

middle of next week. Very rough seas are likely with these winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N84W 

to 09N105W and to 05N124W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N124W to 

beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is occurring from 10N to 19N and between 100W and 109W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



An extensive ridge over the western United States extends

southward into the offshore waters of Mexico. Fresh to strong

northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja

California and Gulf of California. Seas in the offshore waters

are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off Baja California

Sur. Slight to moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of California.



Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and moderate seas are

prevalent in the offshore waters of SW Mexico. However, an

scatterometer satellite pass captured strong winds off Cabo

Corrientes. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light

to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, outside of the redeveloping gale force winds 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to strong NW to NE 

winds will continue across offshore of Baja California and 

through the Gulf of California through Sat, as troughing prevails

over Baja and high pressure builds over northern Mexico and over

the eastern Pacific. Locally fresh N winds will expand farther 

south to offshore of southwestern Mexico this morning through 

early Sat. Rough seas currently offshore of Baja will slowly 

subside into Sat. A new long-period N swell associated with a 

cold front moving through Southern California will push into the 

Baja California Norte waters Sat into early next week, producing 

rough to locally very rough seas. Slight to moderate seas will 

prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea is sliding

eastward ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

This has allowed the pressure gradient across the region to relax

a bit, resulting in moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 

seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, a

weak area of low pressure centered south of the Gulf of Panama is

producing a few showers. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will

prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region through the weekend. 

Winds will restrengthen Mon night, with pulsing strong E winds 

continuing through at least the middle of next week. Elsewhere, 

pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected each night

through this weekend in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1039 mb high pressure system centered near 42N138W extends 

southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure 

gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in 

the deep tropics result in moderate to occasionally strong 

easterly winds over much of the basin north of the ITCZ and 

monsoon trough, especially west of 110W. Seas in these waters are

7-11 ft, with the highest seas are found in the westernmost 

waters. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted 

elsewhere.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain anchored north of 

the region into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh 

trade winds through this weekend north of the ITCZ. Rough seas 

currently impacting much of the open waters will be reinforced by

a new long-period NW swell for areas north of 15N and west of 

130W this morning, with rough seas expanding farther south and 

east through this weekend. A new long-period N swell associated 

with a cold front moving through Southern California will push 

into the waters offshore of Baja California Norte Sat into early 

next week, producing rough to locally very rough seas north of 

25N and east of 130W. Meanwhile, active convection is expected to

continue across the central tropical Pacific through the 

remainder of the week due to a vigorous upper-level trough moving

through the region. 



$$

Delgado