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AXPZ20 KNHC 110339

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds will 

develop later this evening, then rapidly intensify to gale force

tonight as ridging builds over northern Mexico in the wake of a 

cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds 

are expected to continue through Sat afternoon before winds 

diminish Sat night into early Sun. Rapidly building seas will 

occur in tandem with the winds, with peak seas of 12 to 14 ft 

likely. Seas will subside Sun morning. Looking ahead, a more 

prolonged gap wind event is expected next week, with fresh to 

strong N winds redeveloping Mon morning, strengthening to gale 

force Mon evening, and continuing through the middle of next 

week. Very rough seas are likely with these winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N116W. The ITCZ

continues from 06N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate

convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 96W and 102W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A 1028 mb high has been analyzed over northern Mexico, while

troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico into the Gulf of

California. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are occurring

through the Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California,

as well as off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Locally strong

winds are noted in northern portions of the Gulf, as well as

offshore of Baja California Sur. Farther south, gentle to 

locally moderate winds prevail offshore of southern Mexico. 

Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted from 20N to 25N west of 110W, 

generated by a diminishing NW swell. Slight seas are occurring 

in the Gulf of California, with moderate seas noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, away from redeveloping gale force winds in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to NW 

winds will occur through Sat offshore of Baja California and 

through the Gulf of California waters, as high pressure 

strengthens in north-central Mexico and troughing prevails in 

the Gulf. A weakening cold front progressing southward through 

Southern California will push into the northern waters late on 

Sat, and fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will follow the 

front. Rapidly building seas associated with the front look to 

develop offshore of Baja California Norte Sat night, producing 

rough seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 25N by Sun morning. Seas in 

this area will slowly subside by Mon. Looking ahead, pulsing 

fresh to strong NW winds will be possible in the Gulf of 

California early next week as high pressure becomes 

reestablished over northwestern Mexico. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Locally fresh E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. 

Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week, with the 

strongest winds occurring each morning. Winds will strengthen to 

strong speeds by next Tue and continue through late next week, 

as the pressure gradient strengthens between low pressure in the 

south-central Caribbean and building high pressure over the Gulf 

of Mexico. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will 

occur in the Gulf of Panama through late next week. Gentle to 

locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 

across the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Ridging prevails across much of the eastern Pacific waters as a

1040 mb high strengthens north of the area near 43N137W. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring north of 10N along 

the periphery of the ridge. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,

gentle to moderate SE to SW winds are noted. A residual NW swell

is supporting rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N and west

of 110W, and a new long-period NW swell is reinforcing seas of 9

to 11 ft north of 10N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 

7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will occur

north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through this weekend as

strong high pressure prevails well north of the region. A 

weakening cold front progressing southward through Southern 

California will push into the northern waters late on Sat,

leading to fresh to locally strong N to NW winds behind the 

front by early Sun morning, generally north of 25N and east of 

135W. Rapidly building seas associated with the front look to 

push into the northern waters Sat evening, producing rough seas 

of 8 to 11 ft north of 25N by Sun morning. In addition, rough 

seas will prevail across much of the open waters this weekend, as

the new NW swell reinforces seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N 

and west of 110W. Seas will slowly subside through early next 

week. 



$$

ADAMS