****0000006142****
AXPZ20 KNHC 110908

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0900 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N gale force winds will occur

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today as ridging builds over northern

Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving through the Gulf of 

Mexico. Gale force winds are expected to continue through this 

afternoon before winds diminish tonight into early Sun. Rapidly 

building seas will occur in tandem with the winds, with peak seas

of 12 to 14 ft likely. Seas will subside Sun morning. Looking 

ahead, a more prolonged gap wind event is expected next week, 

with fresh to strong N winds redeveloping Mon morning, 

strengthening to gale force Mon evening, and continuing through 

the middle of next week. Very rough seas are likely with these 

winds.



Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 

issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more

details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N84W to 06N116W. The

ITCZ continues from 06N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 96W and 

100W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the

Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A trough prevails over northwestern Mexico, and is flanked by a 

1028 mb high over north-central Mexico and a 1024 mb high 

centered near 29N120W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show 

moderate to fresh N to NE winds through the Gulf of California 

and offshore of Baja California, as well as off the coast of 

southwestern Mexico. Locally strong winds are noted in southern 

portions of the Gulf, as well as offshore of Baja California Sur.

Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail offshore

of southern Mexico. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted from 17N 

to 25N west of 110W, generated by a diminishing NW swell. Slight 

to moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the waters.



For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to NW winds will 

occur today offshore of Baja California and through the Gulf of 

California waters, as high pressure strengthens in north-central 

Mexico and troughing prevails in the Gulf. A weakening cold front

progressing southward through Southern California will push into

the northern waters this evening, and fresh to locally strong N 

to NW winds will follow the front, including across northern 

portions of the Gulf of California. Rapidly building seas 

associated with the front look to develop offshore of Baja 

California Norte tonight, producing rough seas of 8 to 11 ft 

north of 23N by Sun morning. Seas in this area will slowly 

subside by Mon. Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong NW winds 

will be possible in the Gulf of California early next week as 

high pressure becomes reestablished over northwestern Mexico.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Locally fresh E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. 

Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week, with the 

strongest winds occurring each morning. Winds will strengthen to 

strong speeds on Tue and continue through late next week, as the

pressure gradient strengthens between low pressure in the south-

central Caribbean and building high pressure over the Gulf of 

Mexico. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will occur 

in the Gulf of Panama through late next week. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1024 mb high has been analyzed near 29N120W, and a strong 1042

mb high is centered well north of the area near 43N136W. Ridging

extends across much of the eastern Pacific waters, and moderate 

to fresh NE to E winds are occurring north of 08N along the 

periphery of the ridge. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 

gentle to moderate SE to SW winds are noted. A residual NW swell 

is supporting rough seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N and west 

of 110W, and a new long-period NW swell is reinforcing seas of 9

to 11 ft north of 10N and west of 130W. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 

7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will occur

north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through this weekend as

strong high pressure prevails well north of the region. A 

weakening cold front progressing southward through Southern 

California will push into the northern waters this evening, 

leading to fresh to locally strong N to NW winds behind the front

by early Sun morning, generally north of 25N and east of 135W. 

Rapidly building seas associated with the front look to progress 

into the northern waters tonight, producing rough seas of 8 to 

11 ft north of 25N by Sun morning. In addition, rough seas will 

prevail across much of the open waters this weekend, as a new NW

swell reinforces seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N and west of

110W. Seas will slowly subside through early next week. 



$$

ADAMS