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AXPZ20 KNHC 111601

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds are

blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 15N

as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of 

the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front

that is moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast 

to diminish below gale-force speeds by this evening. Rough seas  

generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec

area, with seas 8 ft or greater covering roughly the waters N of

12N between 84W and 98W by this evening. Marine interests transiting

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today should be aware of this gap

wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 

marine conditions over the affected waters. 



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National

Hurricane Center at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information

on this event. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 10N100W to 

05N120W. The ITCZ continues from 05N120W to beyond 03N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 

95W and 100W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 

refer to the Special Features section for more details. 



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

while a trough is along the coast of mainland Mexico N of 

Nayarit. This weather pattern is supporting fresh to strong NW to

N winds in the Gulf of California from 24N to 28N W of 110W, and

W of southern Baja California, particularly from 23N to 27N to 

about 118W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft with the latter winds. NW swell, 

with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range, are noted elsewhere across the 

waters W of Baja California. 



For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to NW winds will

occur today offshore of Baja California Sur and through the 

southern Gulf of California waters. A weakening cold front 

progressing southward through Southern California will push into 

the northern waters this evening, and fresh to locally strong N 

to NW winds will follow the front, including across northern 

portions of the Gulf of California. Rapidly building seas 

associated with the front look to develop offshore of Baja 

California Norte tonight, producing rough seas of 8 to 11 ft 

north of 23N by Sun morning. Looking ahead, a more prolonged gap 

wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week, with

fresh to strong N winds redeveloping Mon morning, strengthening 

to gale force Mon evening, and continuing through the middle of 

next week. Very rough seas are likely with these winds. 

Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong NW winds will be possible in 

the Gulf of California early next week as high pressure becomes 

reestablished over northwestern Mexico. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of

Papagayo. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week, with the 

strongest winds occurring each morning. Winds will strengthen to 

strong speeds on Tue and continue through late next week, as the

pressure gradient strengthens between low pressure in the south-

central Caribbean and building high pressure over the Gulf of 

Mexico. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will occur 

in the Gulf of Panama through late next week. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1042 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.  

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring north of 08N along

the southern periphery of the ridge. South of the monsoon trough

and ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds are noted. Long

period NW swell dominates the entire forecast area, reaching as

far E as the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is

generating seas of 8 to 11 ft mainly N of 06N and W of 120W. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will occur

north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through this weekend as

strong high pressure prevails well north of the region. A 

weakening cold front progressing southward through Southern 

California will push into the northern waters this evening, 

leading to fresh to locally strong N to NW winds behind the front

by early Sun morning, generally north of 25N and east of 135W. 

Rapidly building seas associated with the front look to progress 

into the northern waters tonight, producing rough seas of 8 to 

11 ft north of 25N by Sun morning. In addition, rough seas will 

prevail across much of the open waters this weekend, as a new NW

swell reinforces seas in excess of 8 ft north of 05N and west of

110W. Seas will slowly subside through early next week. 



$$

GR