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AXPZ20 KNHC 112143

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat Jan 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force northerly 

winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to 

about 15N as high pressure continues to surge southward along 

the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the

wake of a cold front that is moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico

and the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are forecast to diminish below 

gale-force speeds by this evening. Rough seas generated from 

this event are spreading well away from the Tehuantepec area, 

with seas 8 ft or greater covering roughly the waters N of 12N 

between 94W and 98W by this evening. Looking ahead, another gap

wind event, reaching gale-force, is expected in the Tehuantepec 

region late Tue into Wed. Winds may increase to 40 kt, with seas

building to 13 or 14 ft by Wed night.



Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National

Hurricane Center at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information

on this event. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N93W to 10N100W to 

06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to beyond 03N140W. 

Convection is limited. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. 



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

while a trough is over NW Mexico. A cold front is moving across

the northern Baja California peninsula. This weather pattern is 

supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the southern Gulf 

of California, and in the offshore waters of Baja California Sur

particularly from 25N to 27N between 113W and 116W. Seas are 8 

to 9 ft with the latter winds. NW swell, with seas in the 6 to 8 

ft range, are noted elsewhere across the waters W of Baja 

California. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6

ft in NW swell are observed elsewhere across the Mexican offshore

waters. 



For the forecast, away from the ongoing gap wind event in the 

Gulf of Tehunatepec, a ridge will continue to dominate the 

offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to

locally fresh NW to N winds. Seas will build to 10 or 11 ft in 

NW swell N of of Punta Eugenia by tonight. This swell event will 

spread across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro on 

Sun. Expect increasing winds of 20 to 25 kt, and building seas of

5 to 7 ft in the northern Gulf of California late tonight into 

Sun behind a weakening cold front currently moving across the 

northern Baja California peninsula. Then, pulsing fresh to strong

NW winds will be possible in the Gulf of California early next 

week as high pressure becomes established over the Great Basin of

the United States. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are pulsing in the Gulf of

Papagayo and downwind to about 88W. Otherwise, gentle to locally

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the 

Central and South America offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Then,

fresh to strong winds and building seas to around 9 ft are 

expected Tue night through Thu night as high pressure builds over

the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will occur

in the Gulf of Panama through late next week. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the remainder of the waters into early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1042 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough 

and W of 110W. Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with

this system, fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring north 

of 28N and W of 120W where seas are in the 9 to 11 ft range. In 

addition, moderate to fresh winds are noted per scatterometer 

data N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 120W. Elsewhere light to

moderate winds prevail. Long period NW swell dominates the 

entire forecast area, reaching as far E as the coasts of Colombia

and Ecuador. This swell event is generating seas of 8 to 11 ft 

mainly N of 06N and W of 120W. 



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The

pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to

strong N to NE winds across the NE waters through at least Sun. 

Long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast

region, with seas in excess of 8 ft covering the waters N of 06N

and W of 120W by tonight. Additional pulses of long period NW 

swell will reach the NW corner of the forecast waters on Sun

morning. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the waters N

of 21N and W of 118W by Mon morning.



$$

GR