****0000005232****
AXPZ20 KNHC 120344

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N114W. The ITCZ

continues from 07N114W to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered

moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 18N between 98W and

114W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Strong to near-gale force winds prevail in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec this evening, with peak seas near 12 to 14 ft. Fresh

NE winds extend beyond the Tehuantepec region, as far south and 

west as 12N102W. Elsewhere, a 1010 mb low has been analyzed over 

central Arizona and a strong 1044 mb high is centered well north 

of the region near 44N134W. The pressure gradient between these 

features is supporting fresh NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and

moderate NW winds across the remainder of the waters offshore of

Baja California and through the Gulf of California. A new long- 

period NW swell is promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 

28N and west of 118W. Slight seas are occurring through the Gulf 

of California, with moderate seas noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong N to NW winds 

will occur north of Cabo San Lazaro through Sun morning, with 

fresh to strong N winds occurring in the northern Gulf of 

California through Sun evening. A long-period NW swell will 

expand rough seas farther south and east for areas north of Cabo 

San Lazaro through Sun before seas subside on Mon. Looking ahead,

strong N gap winds will redevelop on Mon in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, and will strengthen to gale force Mon night as a 

cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico and strong high 

pressure builds in the central United States. Winds will pulse to

gale force through late next week. Rough to very rough seas will

accompany the winds. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to locally strong 

N winds will develop through the Gulf of California early next 

week as troughing presides over northwestern Mexico and high 

pressure builds across the central United States. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf

of Tehuantepec as troughing prevails in the west-central

Caribbean and air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and

over Lake Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds

and slight to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South

America offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh, to at times strong NE to E 

winds will occur across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. More 

steady and widespread strong winds will develop in the region by 

Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops between low 

pressure in the south-central Caribbean, a cold front moving 

through the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure building over the 

central United States. Locally rough seas will accompany the 

wind by midweek. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will occur 

in the Gulf of Panama through late next week. Gentle to locally 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across 

the remainder of the waters.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Fresh to locally strong N to E winds are occurring north of 25N

behind a dissipated cold front. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft in N

swell are occurring in this region. Elsewhere, ridging 

dominates the waters of the East Pacific, and a 1044 mb high is 

centered well north of the region near 44N134W. Moderate to fresh

NE to E winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge 

north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are 

noted elsewhere. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are maintained

north of 05N and west of 120W from a residual long-period NW

swell. 



For the forecast, locally strong N to E winds north of 25N will 

diminish through Sun morning. Otherwise, ridging will prevail 

over the eastern Pacific waters, maintaining moderate to locally

fresh NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ through

early next week. The new long-period N swell in the northern

waters will expand rough seas farther south on Sun, with seas of

8 to 11 ft expected north of 25N by Sun morning, and north of 

22N by Mon morning. Elsewhere, residual N swell will maintain 

rough seas across much of the open waters on Sun, before seas 

very slowly subside south of 20N by Mon night. Looking ahead, 

fresh NE to E winds generated by gap winds in the Gulfs of 

Tehuantepec and Papagayo will extend far beyond the wind-prone 

areas by the middle of next week, with winds occurring as far 

west as 105W. 



$$

ADAMS