****0000005225****
AXPZ20 KNHC 120840

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0800 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N114W. The ITCZ

continues from 07N114W to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered

moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 99W and

108W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Recent scatterometer satellite data show strong N winds in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with accompanying seas of 8 to

10 ft. Elsewhere, a 1012 mb low has been analyzed over central 

Arizona and a strong 1042 mb high is centered well north of the 

region near 43N134W. The pressure gradient between these 

features is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds north of Cabo 

San Lazaro and in central portions of the Gulf of California, and

moderate NW winds across the remainder of the waters offshore of

Baja California and through the Gulf of California. A new long- 

period NW swell is promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 

27N and west of 117W. Slight seas are occurring through the Gulf 

of California, with moderate seas noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec will diminish early this morning. Elsewhere, pulsing 

fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will occur north of Cabo 

San Lazaro this morning, with fresh to strong N winds occurring 

in the northern Gulf of California through this evening. A long-

period NW swell will expand rough seas farther south and east 

for areas north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight before seas 

subside Mon morning. Looking ahead, strong N gap winds will 

redevelop on Mon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and will strengthen

to gale force Mon night as a cold front moves through the Gulf 

of Mexico and strong high pressure builds in the central United 

States. Winds will pulse to gale force through late week. Rough 

to very rough seas will accompany the winds. Elsewhere, pulsing 

fresh to locally strong N winds will develop through the Gulf of

California early this week as troughing presides over 

northwestern Mexico and high pressure builds across the central 

United States.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf

of Tehuantepec as troughing prevails in the west-central

Caribbean and air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and

over Lake Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds

and slight to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South

America offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh, to at times strong NE to E 

winds will occur across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. More 

steady and widespread strong winds will develop in the region by

early Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops between low

pressure in the south-central Caribbean, a cold front moving 

through the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure building over the 

central United States. Locally rough seas will accompany the wind

by midweek. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will occur in 

the Gulf of Panama through late week. Gentle to locally moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the 

remainder of the waters.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Fresh to locally strong N to E winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft

in N swell are occurring north of 25N. Elsewhere, ridging 

dominates the waters of the East Pacific, and a 1042 mb high is 

centered well north of the region near 43134W. Moderate to fresh

NE to E winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge 

north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are 

noted elsewhere. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft are maintained 

north of 03N and west of 120W from a residual long-period NW 

swell. 



For the forecast, locally strong N to E winds north of 25N will 

diminish this morning. Otherwise, ridging will prevail over the 

eastern Pacific waters, maintaining moderate to locally fresh NE 

to E winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ through early this 

week. The new long-period N swell in the northern waters will 

expand rough seas farther south through Mon, with seas in excess

of 8 ft north of 22N by Mon morning. Elsewhere, residual N swell

will maintain rough seas across much of the open waters today, 

before seas very slowly subside south of 20N by Mon night. 

Looking ahead, fresh NE to E winds generated by gap winds in the 

Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will extend far beyond the 

wind-prone areas by the middle of next week, with winds occurring

as far west as 105W. 



$$

ADAMS