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AXPZ20 KNHC 121556

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N100W to 07N113W. 

The ITCZ continues from 07N113W to 06N132W to beyond 04N140W. 

Convection is limited.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

while a trough is over NW Mexico. This weather pattern is supporting

fresh to strong NW winds, with seas of 3 to 5 ft across the northern

Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds and slight seas 

are noted across the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW 

winds are blowing across the offshore waters of Baja California. 

Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW are affecting the waters N of Punta 

Eugenia while seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere. Light to 

gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere 

across the Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore 

forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally 

fresh NW to N winds. Rough seas N of Punta Eugenia will subside

below 8 ft on Mon. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds will be 

possible in the Gulf of California early this week as high 

pressure becomes established over the Great Basin of the United 

States. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is

forecast to begin late Tue into Wed. Gale force winds and rough

seas will accompany this event forecast to likely continue

through Thu night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf

of Papagayo as troughing prevails in the west-central Caribbean 

and air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and over Lake 

Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo early this week. Then, fresh 

to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft are expected Tue night

and Wed as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean. Seas 

generated in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate

across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by

mid-week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will occur in the 

Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to locally moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the 

remainder of the offshore forecast waters this week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1038b located well N of area extends a

ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 

fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of 27N between 

120W and 133W. seas of 9 to 12 ft are within these winds. In 

addition, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted per 

scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 130W. 

Elsewhere light to moderate winds prevail. Long period NW swell 

dominates the entire forecast area, reaching as far E as the 

coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is generating 

seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the waters N of 06N and W of 

120W.



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The

pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to

strong N to NE winds and rough seas across the north-central 

waters through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to 

propagate across the forecast region. Additional pulses of long 

period NW swell are currently reaching the NW corner of the 

forecast area. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the 

waters N of 21N and W of 118W by Mon morning.



$$

GR