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AXPZ20 KNHC 122337 CCA

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction

NWS National Hurricane Center 

Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



Corrected to add a Special Features



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to 

begin by Mon evening, reaching minimal gale force mainly during 

the overnight and early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas 

are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N100W to 08N111W. 

The ITCZ continues from 08N111W to 05N132W to beyond 06N140W. 

Convection is limited.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,

refer to  the Special Features section for more details.



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

while a trough is over NW Mexico. This weather pattern is supporting

fresh to strong NW winds, with seas of 5 to 8 ft across the 

northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and slight 

seas are noted across the remainder of the Gulf. Recent satellite

derived wind data indicate gentle to moderate NW winds across 

the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW

swell are affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia while seas of 

5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere. Light to gentle winds and moderate 

seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 

waters. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore 

forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally 

fresh NW to N winds. Rough seas N of Punta Eugenia will subside

below 8 ft on Mon. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds with building

seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in the Gulf of California early 

this week as high pressure becomes established over the Great 

Basin of the United States. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf

of Papagayo as troughing prevails in the west-central Caribbean 

and air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and over Lake 

Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 

occur across the Gulf of Papagayo early this week. Then, fresh 

to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft are expected Tue night

through Wed night as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean.

Seas generated in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will 

propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 

Salvador by mid-week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate N winds will 

occur in the Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to 

locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 

across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters probably

through Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1038 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 

fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of 28N between 124W

and 131W. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are within these winds. In addition,

moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data

N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 130W with an area of fresh to

locally strong trades from 13N to 16N. Elsewhere, gentle to

moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W

while light to gentle winds are to the south. Long period NW 

swell dominates the entire forecast area, reaching as far E as 

the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is 

generating seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the waters N of 23N

and W of 118W as well as the area from 06N to 20N and W of 125W.



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The

pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to

strong N to NE winds and rough seas across the north-central 

waters through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to 

propagate across the forecast region. Additional pulses of long 

period NW swell are currently reaching the NW corner of the 

forecast area. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the 

waters N of 22N and W of 118W by Mon morning. A surface trough 

will develop W of Baja California Norte on Mon and move westward

through mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and

high pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on

either side of the trough axis on Tue. 





$$

GR