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AXPZ20 KNHC 130338

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds will 

develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night into Fri 

morning, as the pressure gradient increases between a cold front 

moving through the western Gulf of Mexico and high pressure 

building over central Mexico. Winds will briefly reach gale force

late Fri morning, with winds remaining strong through Fri night.

Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Winds and seas 

will diminish Sat morning. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N125W. The ITCZ 

continues from 04N125W to 06N134W, and resumes near 06N137W and 

continues beyond 05N140W. A trough has been analyzed from 04N136W

to 11N133W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N 

to 11N between 108W and 121W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1019 mb high centered near 26N128W extends ridging through the

Mexico offshore waters, and a trough has been analyzed over Baja

California. Farther east, a 1000 mb low is centered over east- 

central Mexico. This pattern supports moderate NW winds over the 

waters offshore of Baja California and offshore of southwestern 

Mexico, with locally fresh winds occurring offshore of Jalisco 

and between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate

N to NW winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft are 

noted through the Baja California offshore waters, with slight 

seas occurring through the Gulf of California and offshore of 

southwestern Mexico. 



For the forecast, away from developing gale force winds in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally fresh NW winds will be possible 

between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro as well as offshore of 

Jalisco at times through Thu. A cold front is forecast to move 

into the Baja California Norte waters early Fri, and moderate to 

fresh N to NW winds will follow the front as it progresses 

southeastward through the Baja California waters through Sat. 

Winds are also forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds 

ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California on Fri, 

with seas building to around 7 ft. A new long-period NW swell 

associated with the front will produce rough to very rough seas 

north of 28N by Fri morning, and north of 20N by Sat morning. 

Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected north of Punta Eugenia Fri 

afternoon through Sat morning. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale

force winds will redevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun and

continue into early next week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of 

Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and 

high pressure remains in the northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, 

light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail in the 

remainder of the forecast waters. 



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will 

occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as a tight 

pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the 

northwestern Caribbean and low pressure over northwestern 

Colombia. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Winds 

may briefly decrease this weekend before fresh to strong winds 

redevelop early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds 

and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters 

offshore of Central and South America into early next week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Broad ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific 

waters, with a 1019 mb high centered near 26N128W and a 1020 mb 

high near 25N138W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are 

occurring between 08N and 18N west of 110W along the periphery of

the ridge, and a residual N to NW swell is producing seas of 8 

to 9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted near 

the center of the high pressure. A tightening pressure gradient 

between the ridge and a cold front north of the area is 

supporting moderate to locally fresh W winds north of 28.5N and 

west of 125W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and 

slight to moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough and 

ITCZ. 



For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high 

pressure over the eastern Pacific and the approaching cold front 

will support fresh to locally strong W to SW winds ahead of the 

front through Thu, generally north of 28N. Winds will turn to the

NW and weaken behind the front. A new long-period NW swell 

associated with this front will produce rough seas north of 28N 

Thu morning, and north of 23N by Fri morning. Peak seas of 12 to 

16 ft are expected north of 25N Thu evening through Sat morning, 

before seas slowly diminish on Sun. Elsewhere, rough seas 

promoted by a residual NW swell will prevail from 08N to 20N west

of 130W on Thu before being reinforced by the aforementioned new

NW swell. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected between 

10N and 20N west of 115W through this weekend. Looking ahead, a 

new NW swell will support rough seas in the northwestern waters, 

north of 10N and west of 120W, Sun into early next week. 



$$

ADAMS