****0000005682****
AXPZ20 KNHC 130409

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the

Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by Mon afternoon, 

reaching minimal gale force mainly during the evenings through 

early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas are forecast to 

build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W to 07N112W. 

The ITCZ continues from 07N112W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 99W and

110W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,

refer to  the Special Features section for more details.



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

supporting moderate to fresh NW winds, with seas to 5 ft along 

the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are across the 

offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 9 ft in NW swell 

affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds 

and moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the 

Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to 

moderate winds. Long period NW swell generating rough seas to 9 

ft N of Punta Eugenia will subside Mon morning. Pulsing fresh to 

strong NW winds with building seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in 

the Gulf of California Mon night through Wed as high pressure 

establishes over the Great Basin of the United States. The next 

gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by 

Mon afternoon, reaching minimal gale force mainly from the 

evenings through early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas 

are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 

Papagayo as troughing prevails in the west-central Caribbean and 

air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and over Lake 

Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 

offshore waters.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the

Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds late on Mon 

and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 

gale- force on Wed as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean.

Seas with this gap wind event will be mainly moderate, except on

Wed when seas are forecast to be rough with the strongest winds.

Moderate easterly winds from Papagayo will propagate across the 

outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid- 

week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds will 

occur in the Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to 

locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 

across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters probably 

through Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1038 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 

fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 27N between 123W and 

137W. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are within these winds. In addition, 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 

about 21N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 

prevail N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W while light to 

gentle winds are to the south. Long period NW swell dominates the

entire forecast area, reaching as far E as the coasts of 

Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is generating seas of 8 to

11 ft across most of the waters N of 23N and W of 118W as well 

as the area from 12N to 20N and W of 134W.



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The

pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to

strong N to NE winds and rough seas across the north-central 

waters through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to 

propagate across the forecast region. Additional pulses of long 

period NW swell are currently reaching the NW corner of the 

forecast area. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the 

waters N of 22N and W of 118W by Mon morning. A surface trough 

will develop W of Baja California Norte on Mon and move westward

through mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and

high pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on

either side of the trough axis on Tue. 





$$

Ramos